Atlanta Water Shortage

For a while, it looked like we might be right about Hanna bringing us some rain — turns out we’re wrong.  All of the latest models now show Hanna hitting in the Carolinas and then shooting off to the northeast.  We’re not likely to get much of anything out of it.

In the meantime, Lanier has slowly been dropping this month; down about an inch so far.  Certainly not bad, but that pace will start to accelerate as the ground begins to dry up from Fay.

Maybe Ike or Josephine will show us some love…

Being the first day of the month, it’s time for our monthly status chart and things are looking better!  Fay certainly did a lot of good for us.  Rather than drop 2.5 feet like we did last August, the lake actually rose.

The bad news is that we’re still in rough shape.  Today is the lowest the lake has ever been on September 1st, which is the kind of record we’re setting every day still.  The key is whether the lake will plummet over these next few months like it did last year.  The extra moisure in the ground and the threat of more heavy rain (Hanna?) tend to point to good news, but you never know.

Last September the lake dropped by over three feet (1061.77 down to 1058.73).  What do you think it will do this year?

Gustav is forecast to enter the Gulf, strengthen and then make landfall… somewhere.

Hanna is forecast to move west, possibly strengthening and hitting the east coast.

Which one might bring Atlanta the best chance for rain?

Hanna is a westward moving storm that developed further out into the Atlantic than the normal train of hurricanes that make their way into the Gulf.

Many of these hurricanes get blown north, never hitting or just skirting the coast.  The winds may not be favorable for that right now - if she hits the east coast, she will push in to the west.

If she hits anywhere within a couple hundred miles of Georgia on either side, Atlanta is likely to get significant rain from her. 

Gustav by comparison, will move into the Gulf, and then may move anywhere - west to Texas maybe or as the current forecast suggests, right into to New Orleans.

(My money is on New Orleans because of the irony - the USACE has just reminded everyone that the levees are not fully repaired and will not be until 2011, and my friends in that great city just finished rebuilding their home)

Maybe Gustav will pull east and hit Georgia and Florida. If it doesn’t pull east, Atlanta won’t get a sizable piece of this storm.

So, my money is on Hanna - where do you stand?  Gustav?  Hanna?  Both?  Neither?

We mentioned earlier that Gustav could become a category 3 hurricane before it makes landfall.  Now there’s talk that it could reach category 4 or 5 status.

Accuweather Meteorologist John Kocet says:

“There is nothing in Gustav’s path that will hinder development. There is a strong probability that it will be a Category 3 storm by the time it enters the Gulf, and it has the potential to strengthen into a Category 4 or 5 storm over the Gulf.”

The great thing about Fay is that it was a relatively quiet storm (compared to a major hurricane), but it still brought us some nice rain.  Gustav is likely to cause major destruction, making our water situation seem pretty petty in comparison (as it should).

Below are a few maps from Weather Underground showing the possible path of the storm.  The five-day forecast shows it aiming directly for New Orleans, though the computer models are still quite varied in their predictions.

This will certainly be a storm to keep an eye on, as it could have a major impact on a lot of lives.

Could this be the storm that we’ve all been waiting for?  It appears unlikely that we’ll get the 15+ inches that they saw in much of Florida, but parts of the area could see over 10 inches.

With the 1.11 inches received at Buford Dam yesterday, it was the first day this month where Lanier didn’t drop (it started and ended the day at 1053.30).  The rain over the next few days will certainly raise the level of the lake, but by how much?  If we actually get 10 inches of rain in north Georgia, what will that do to the level of the lake?  Any guesses?

That’s the big question.  It’s a debate that started back in 1990, when Alabama wanted to prevent the Army Corps of Enginerrs from giving more water to Atlanta.

Alabama and Florida say that supplying Atlanta with water is just a secondary benefit of Lanier — not part of it’s primary purpose.  Georgia, of course, disagrees.

The AJC has the full story with more information.

It’s August, so it’s time to welcome back the scorching temperatures.  The Lawrenceville Weather Blog is reporting that today was unofficially the hottest day of the year so far.  Last August was brutally hot across Georgia, resulting in a significant drop in Lake Lanier’s water level.  It’s unlikely that this year will be quite that hot, as it was the one of the hottest Augusts since 1980.

Despite the cooler temperatures, we could still see another large drop in Lanier’s level.  As rkolter pointed out, last year we had a ton of restrictions and people were very water-conscious.  This year there are fewer restrictions in place and water is rarely in the news.

Last August saw a drop of 2.37 feet (1064.14 to 1061.77).  Do you think August will see a greater drop, a lesser drop, or no drop at all?

With Lanier at its lowest level for this time of year since it was built in the 1950s, the Corps has issued a warning to anyone planning to use the lake over the holiday.  The statement from E. Patrick Robbins reads, in part:

“The shallower water conditions could expose sandbars or stumps to those swimming or boating,… Boaters should be cautions as declining levels may reduce clearance over underwater obstructions.”

The article in the AJC brought up some interesting facts:

• The lake is about 15 feet below full, something we’re all well aware of.
• Of the 39 public docks, only two are usable.
• Of the 100 lanes of public boat ramps, only 12 are usable.

Also, the article claims that the corps expect Lanier to drop another foot by July 25.  Considering we lost about 1.5 feet in the month of June, that sounds like a pretty reasonable guess.

According to an article in the AJC, the sun is responsible for about 2/10″ drop in lanier every day.  It’s been losing about an inch/day lately (0.84 the last few days), a trend which seems likely to continue for a while.  Yesterday, that 2/10″ amounted to over 193 million gallons.

The weather is cooling off a bit, which should help, but no major rain is anywhere in the forecast.

The various rivers and streams that flow into Lake Lanier are at (or near) their all-time lows, which isn’t a good sign for the lake.

According to 11Alive, the Chattahoochee River north of the lake is at 28% of its normal flow.  Other than the 28% figure, the article didn’t give any other numbers, just quotes from local residents talking about how low it looks.

So far this year, the lake has done pretty well.  It even surprised some folks (like myself) when it rose a few inchdes last month.  This month has been a slow but steady drop, down about 4 inches so far.  Last June, the lake dropped by about 21 inches, so at least we’re still dropping at a slower rate.  Of course, we’re already about 10 feet lower than this time last year…

If the inflow continues to dwindle, this could create some big problems, even with the revised operating plan in place.