Atlanta Water Shortage

The state of Georgia had been hoping to overturn a ruling that invalidated a 2003 agreement that let Georgia take extra water from Lake Lanier, but an overruling on that court decision now appears to be unlikely.

Specifically, as per 11Alive:

The Justice Department has recommended that the high court not take up the case, maintaining in a brief filed last week that Georgia’s arguments are flawed and that the issue is not significant enough to merit Supreme Court attention.

While I’m not sure which way it should go, I’m surprised they call it “not significant enough”.  With the lake quickly approaching new record low levels, it certainly seems like it’d be an important ruling.

The record low is getting real close, but I’m still not hearing much about it on the news.  The level today is at 1051.35, only 0.54 feet from the record low of 1050.81.  We’re dropping about 0.05 feet/day, which means it could start setting new records the first week of December.

Some of the guesses from our thread a few weeks ago still look to be pretty close.  Anyone care to revise their guess?

The record low for Lake Lanier is 1050.81, set on December 23 of last year.  On this day last year, the lake was at 1055.19 and falling fast.  Today we’re nearly three feet lower (1052.26), though it’s not falling as quickly.

Lately, on average, the lake is falling around 0.06 ft/day.  At that rate we’re about 25 days away from reaching the new record low.

So what do you think?  Will we drop that low?  If so, when?

For a while, it looked like we might be right about Hanna bringing us some rain — turns out we’re wrong.  All of the latest models now show Hanna hitting in the Carolinas and then shooting off to the northeast.  We’re not likely to get much of anything out of it.

In the meantime, Lanier has slowly been dropping this month; down about an inch so far.  Certainly not bad, but that pace will start to accelerate as the ground begins to dry up from Fay.

Maybe Ike or Josephine will show us some love…

Being the first day of the month, it’s time for our monthly status chart and things are looking better!  Fay certainly did a lot of good for us.  Rather than drop 2.5 feet like we did last August, the lake actually rose.

The bad news is that we’re still in rough shape.  Today is the lowest the lake has ever been on September 1st, which is the kind of record we’re setting every day still.  The key is whether the lake will plummet over these next few months like it did last year.  The extra moisure in the ground and the threat of more heavy rain (Hanna?) tend to point to good news, but you never know.

Last September the lake dropped by over three feet (1061.77 down to 1058.73).  What do you think it will do this year?

Gustav is forecast to enter the Gulf, strengthen and then make landfall… somewhere.

Hanna is forecast to move west, possibly strengthening and hitting the east coast.

Which one might bring Atlanta the best chance for rain?

Hanna is a westward moving storm that developed further out into the Atlantic than the normal train of hurricanes that make their way into the Gulf.

Many of these hurricanes get blown north, never hitting or just skirting the coast.  The winds may not be favorable for that right now - if she hits the east coast, she will push in to the west.

If she hits anywhere within a couple hundred miles of Georgia on either side, Atlanta is likely to get significant rain from her. 

Gustav by comparison, will move into the Gulf, and then may move anywhere - west to Texas maybe or as the current forecast suggests, right into to New Orleans.

(My money is on New Orleans because of the irony - the USACE has just reminded everyone that the levees are not fully repaired and will not be until 2011, and my friends in that great city just finished rebuilding their home)

Maybe Gustav will pull east and hit Georgia and Florida. If it doesn’t pull east, Atlanta won’t get a sizable piece of this storm.

So, my money is on Hanna - where do you stand?  Gustav?  Hanna?  Both?  Neither?

We mentioned earlier that Gustav could become a category 3 hurricane before it makes landfall.  Now there’s talk that it could reach category 4 or 5 status.

Accuweather Meteorologist John Kocet says:

“There is nothing in Gustav’s path that will hinder development. There is a strong probability that it will be a Category 3 storm by the time it enters the Gulf, and it has the potential to strengthen into a Category 4 or 5 storm over the Gulf.”

The great thing about Fay is that it was a relatively quiet storm (compared to a major hurricane), but it still brought us some nice rain.  Gustav is likely to cause major destruction, making our water situation seem pretty petty in comparison (as it should).

Below are a few maps from Weather Underground showing the possible path of the storm.  The five-day forecast shows it aiming directly for New Orleans, though the computer models are still quite varied in their predictions.

This will certainly be a storm to keep an eye on, as it could have a major impact on a lot of lives.

Could this be the storm that we’ve all been waiting for?  It appears unlikely that we’ll get the 15+ inches that they saw in much of Florida, but parts of the area could see over 10 inches.

With the 1.11 inches received at Buford Dam yesterday, it was the first day this month where Lanier didn’t drop (it started and ended the day at 1053.30).  The rain over the next few days will certainly raise the level of the lake, but by how much?  If we actually get 10 inches of rain in north Georgia, what will that do to the level of the lake?  Any guesses?

That’s the big question.  It’s a debate that started back in 1990, when Alabama wanted to prevent the Army Corps of Enginerrs from giving more water to Atlanta.

Alabama and Florida say that supplying Atlanta with water is just a secondary benefit of Lanier — not part of it’s primary purpose.  Georgia, of course, disagrees.

The AJC has the full story with more information.

It’s August, so it’s time to welcome back the scorching temperatures.  The Lawrenceville Weather Blog is reporting that today was unofficially the hottest day of the year so far.  Last August was brutally hot across Georgia, resulting in a significant drop in Lake Lanier’s water level.  It’s unlikely that this year will be quite that hot, as it was the one of the hottest Augusts since 1980.

Despite the cooler temperatures, we could still see another large drop in Lanier’s level.  As rkolter pointed out, last year we had a ton of restrictions and people were very water-conscious.  This year there are fewer restrictions in place and water is rarely in the news.

Last August saw a drop of 2.37 feet (1064.14 to 1061.77).  Do you think August will see a greater drop, a lesser drop, or no drop at all?