Atlanta Water Shortage

For a while, it looked like we might be right about Hanna bringing us some rain — turns out we’re wrong.  All of the latest models now show Hanna hitting in the Carolinas and then shooting off to the northeast.  We’re not likely to get much of anything out of it.

In the meantime, Lanier has slowly been dropping this month; down about an inch so far.  Certainly not bad, but that pace will start to accelerate as the ground begins to dry up from Fay.

Maybe Ike or Josephine will show us some love…

Being the first day of the month, it’s time for our monthly status chart and things are looking better!  Fay certainly did a lot of good for us.  Rather than drop 2.5 feet like we did last August, the lake actually rose.

The bad news is that we’re still in rough shape.  Today is the lowest the lake has ever been on September 1st, which is the kind of record we’re setting every day still.  The key is whether the lake will plummet over these next few months like it did last year.  The extra moisure in the ground and the threat of more heavy rain (Hanna?) tend to point to good news, but you never know.

Last September the lake dropped by over three feet (1061.77 down to 1058.73).  What do you think it will do this year?

We mentioned earlier that Gustav could become a category 3 hurricane before it makes landfall.  Now there’s talk that it could reach category 4 or 5 status.

Accuweather Meteorologist John Kocet says:

“There is nothing in Gustav’s path that will hinder development. There is a strong probability that it will be a Category 3 storm by the time it enters the Gulf, and it has the potential to strengthen into a Category 4 or 5 storm over the Gulf.”

The great thing about Fay is that it was a relatively quiet storm (compared to a major hurricane), but it still brought us some nice rain.  Gustav is likely to cause major destruction, making our water situation seem pretty petty in comparison (as it should).

Below are a few maps from Weather Underground showing the possible path of the storm.  The five-day forecast shows it aiming directly for New Orleans, though the computer models are still quite varied in their predictions.

This will certainly be a storm to keep an eye on, as it could have a major impact on a lot of lives.

The big question everyone is asking: Did Fay “fix” the drought? In a word, no, but it helped.

With the rain essentially gone, the total at Buford Dam over the last few days is presumed to have been about five inches.  The USGS totals only show about 4 inches, but they seem to be having some problems with their system.  Hopefully they can get that fixed.

In terms of the lake, the water has risen nearly 17 inches, from a low of 1053.30′ on Sunday (and Monday) morning, up to a high around 1054.69′ right now.  That was the level back on August 7, so this storm bought us nearly three weeks.

However, this rainfall will benefit Lake Lanier for weeks to come.  The biggest problem facing the lake is the amount of water drained from the lake each day.  Recently, around a billion gallons per day was being released, but that was reduced by nearly 40% on Monday, and will likely be reduced for some time to come because of the excess water downstream.

Next up is Gustav. It’s expected to strengthen into a strong storm (possibly a Category 3 hurricane), but no one has any idea where it might make landfall.  Whether we see any rain from it or not is completely up in the air.  We’ll keep you posted as the storm gets closer.

Could this be the storm that we’ve all been waiting for?  It appears unlikely that we’ll get the 15+ inches that they saw in much of Florida, but parts of the area could see over 10 inches.

With the 1.11 inches received at Buford Dam yesterday, it was the first day this month where Lanier didn’t drop (it started and ended the day at 1053.30).  The rain over the next few days will certainly raise the level of the lake, but by how much?  If we actually get 10 inches of rain in north Georgia, what will that do to the level of the lake?  Any guesses?

For the last few days, most storm models have been showing Fay either missing us completely or just giving us a few bands of rain.  However, now we’re starting to see some models that show the potential for some substantial rain.

The photo at right shows the potential rainfall for the six hour period starting at 2pm Saturday.  Based on that, we could see 3-4 inches in that timeframe, plus some rain before/after the six hour window.

The next few days should start clearing it up either way.

(via Lawrenceville Weather Blog)

The latest computer models are showing that Tropical Storm Fay could hit the Florida panhandle and travel north into Georgia during the middle of next week.

We’ve said for a while that what Lake Lanier needs is a tropical storm to dump a ton of rain onto it.  It’s a longshot, but this could be the one.  It’s certainly worth keeping an eye on.