Atlanta Water Shortage

The USGS site is having a hard time getting current numbers posted today, but the Lawrenceville Weather Blog has it covered.  According to their site, here are some rainfall totals in our area:

• Alpharetta: 1.18 inches
• Johns Creek: 1.18 inches
• Dunwoody: 1.21 inches
• Gainesville: 1.17 inches
• Lawrenceville:  0.77 inches
• Dahlonega: 0.98 inches
• Jonesboro: 0.36 inches
• Dallas: 1.01 inches

We’ve got a chance at some more rain later this week, so hopefully it will start to make a difference in the lake levels.

As reported by the Lawrenceville Weather Blog, the next six weeks will be critical in getting the lake levels up.  From their article:

February and March typically are some of the wettest months of the year, with an average of 4.7 and 5.4 inches of precipitation respectively.  So far, February is running slightly below normal, but with more than half an inch of rain predicted for Sunday and a storm the weekend of the 22nd that could bring over an inch, we could quickly get to normal.  The Climate Prediction Center is calling for a better than normal chance of rain for the period between the 21st and the 29th.

The bottom line is that if we are going to get significant filling of Lake Lanier, February and March will be the months that do it…

Let’s hope the predictions for the next few weeks come true and we can start to see some real progress in the lake levels.

Given the prediction of a warm, dry winter, I figured it was pretty unlikely that we’d see snow this year — much less see snow twice in a week!

It’s been fun to play in, but has it helped? Not really. The two storms combined only brought us about 2/10″ of water, which isn’t very much at all.

Lake Lanier continues to slowly rise, but it’s probably not enough compared to how much it should rise this winter. Sadly, it looks like our next good chance of rain won’t be until the end of the month.

According to the Lawrenceville Weather Blog, we’ve got a chance at seeing some snow (or sleet, or freezing rain, or ice) next week.

Accuweather almost agrees, saying that we’ll get “Rain, which can freeze on surfaces late”.  Whichever forecast you prefer, it seems like to be near freezing with some precipitation, which means it could get interesting.

Accuweather is calling for around 4/10″.  Even if it’s frozen, it will melt pretty quickly and give us a tiny bit of relief.  The lake has been holding pretty steady lately (we’re at the exact same level as last Sunday - 1051.28′), but this is the time of year when we really need it to start rising.

Dr. Jeff Masters, co-founder of the Weather Underground, has written an excellent article about the the state of the drought, the causes of the drought, and a look ahead.

Some highlights:

• We had a very dry year in Atlanta, but Birmingham and Huntsville were even further below normal.
• Droughts tend to run in two-year cycles every 25 years, with longer ones sometimes mixed in.  2006 saw normal rainfall in Atlanta, which points to 2008 being quite dry.
• Global warming likely has nothing to do with the current drought.  The globe has warmed by 1° F in the past 100 years, but the southeastern U.S. has cooled by 0.1° F over the same period.  No one quite knows why.

All in all, it’s a great read.  Check it out.

For the first two months of running this blog (October 15 - December 15), Lake Lanier got lower every single day.  December 15th was the first day that we saw a small rise (1/8 inch), after which it fell some more.

However, with the rain over the last few days (a total of 2.44 inches recorded at Lanier), the lake has risen by 5.28 inches in the last three days.  Over half of that gain was yesterday, when the lake rose by 2.76 inches.

The other good news from this is that any rain we receive will continue to help us for a few days, because less water will need to be released from the lake as a result.  We covered that effect more in-depth a few months ago.  With no rain today, the lake is still up by about an inch (though the daily release is scheduled for later this evening).

The drought obviously isn’t over (the lake is still 20 feet low), but how good is this news?  Is it exciting that the lake has risen this much in the past few days?  Or is it just a blip on the radar and we’re still in deep, deep trouble?  Leave your thoughts in the comments.

The driest year on record for the city of Atlanta was in 1931, with a total of 29.14 inches.  With the recent rain, Atlanta is now at a total of 29.27 inches for the year.

Even better, the short-term forecast is looking pretty good, with north Georgia possibly getting 3-4 inches of rain in the next five days.  That certainly won’t solve our problems, but every little bit helps.

The Lawrenceville Weather Blog has the full details.

So far, all signs point to “yes”.  This article on watercrunch sums it up pretty well.

The primary factor seems to be La Niña, the current weather pattern that is likely to bring us warm, dry weather throughout the winter and into the spring, which we’ve discussed before.

The key seems to be in the next 3-4 months.  If we don’t get much rain during that span, things will almost certainly be worse heading into next summer/fall.

For the first time since this this blog was started nearly two months ago, the level of Lake Lanier went up due to the rain yesterday.

Granted, it only went up by 0.01 feet (about 1/10 of an inch), and it’s already dropping today, but it was certainly nice to see.

As was the case during the last bit of rain we got, Lake Lanier dropped even further yesterday in spite of the rain. In fact, since this blog started (October 16), the lake has dropped every single day.

However, there is a bit of somewhat good news. The lake only dropped 0.03 feet yesterday, which was the lowest single-day drop in over a month. In addition, we should see less water released from the dam over the next few days, as the Chattahoochee will be getting extra water from the rivers and streams that feed into it because of the rain (explained a bit further in this post). In fact, the lake is actually up by about 0.04 feet for the day, though that gain will probably be erased during the evening water release at the dam.

The other good thing that could come out of the rain is that the ground is now holding more water. The problem we’ve been having is that each time it rains, the ground just soaks it up because it had been so long since the previous rain. If we can get some more rain the next few days, it would probably be more beneficial because the ground won’t be quite as dry. However, the rain that was forecast for this weekend seems to have evaporated and nothing is expected until late next week. At the point, the ground will be getting pretty thirsty again.