Atlanta Water Shortage

Lake Lanier dropped by about 1/4″ yesterday, the first drop in about 50 days (March 4 being the last).  However, with no rain forecast until at least the weekend, have we seen the peak?

Even if we have, it’s been a pretty good month.  Based on historical data, I figured the lake would hold about steady for the month of April.  Instead, it’s up nearly a foot for the month.

So, is this the peak for the spring?  Or will it climb a bit higher?  If this is the peak, what do you think the low will be in November/December when it typically hits the low point?

Due to the almost-normal rainfall we received in March, Gwinnett County has decided to relax hand watering restrictions to match the guidelines put out by the state of Georgia.  Specifically (as posted on the LWB):

That means you can use a hose with a hand-activated nozzle to water your plants for up to 25 minutes three days per week, on an odd-even schedule. People with even numbered addresses can water on Monday, Wednesday and Saturday, while people with odd numbered addressed can water on Tuesday, Thursday and Sunday. All watering must be done between midnight and 8 AM. Food gardens can be watered anytime, and the you are not allowed to use your 25 minute window to wash your car.

While all of north Georgia received below-normal rainfall in March, it was pretty close:

• Atlanta recorded 5.17 inches of rain, a quarter inch less than normal.
• Gainesville had 5.25 inches of rainfall, 87% of normal.
• Athens had 3.48 inches of rain, or an 1.5 inches less than normal.

The short-term forecast is looking pretty good, but we’ve still got a steep road in front of us.

Lake Lanier rose nearly six inches yesterday, the largest single-day rise since I started this blog last October.  The USGS counted 0.65 inches of rain yesterday at Buford Dam, but others have seen totals over 2 inches (in the comments).

All in all, we’re still running a little below the normal pace for the year, but we’re doing a bit better than this time last year.  However, Lanier is still much lower than it was at this time last year, so we could use a few more soaking storms.

If you measure rainfall at your house, how much have you seen in the last few days?

11Alive has posted an article featuring Dr. David Stooksbury, a state climatologist.  He makes a few good points:

• March is the make or break month for the drought.
• We should receive about 1-1/4 inches of rain per week in March.
• Last March started out very wet, then turned dry.
• Recent rains haven’t helped the north Georgia river flows.

Based on his statement of 1-1/4 inches per week, that means we need to average about 0.17 inches per day (1.25 inches divided by 7 days in a week).

So far this month we’ve seen a total of 2.04 inches in nine days, or an average of about 0.23 inches/day, which is above average.  Lake Lanier continues to slowly refill, but it needs to get going in a hurry and start gaining some more ground on the 16 foot deficit.

The USGS site is having a hard time getting current numbers posted today, but the Lawrenceville Weather Blog has it covered.  According to their site, here are some rainfall totals in our area:

• Alpharetta: 1.18 inches
• Johns Creek: 1.18 inches
• Dunwoody: 1.21 inches
• Gainesville: 1.17 inches
• Lawrenceville:  0.77 inches
• Dahlonega: 0.98 inches
• Jonesboro: 0.36 inches
• Dallas: 1.01 inches

We’ve got a chance at some more rain later this week, so hopefully it will start to make a difference in the lake levels.

As reported by the Lawrenceville Weather Blog, the next six weeks will be critical in getting the lake levels up.  From their article:

February and March typically are some of the wettest months of the year, with an average of 4.7 and 5.4 inches of precipitation respectively.  So far, February is running slightly below normal, but with more than half an inch of rain predicted for Sunday and a storm the weekend of the 22nd that could bring over an inch, we could quickly get to normal.  The Climate Prediction Center is calling for a better than normal chance of rain for the period between the 21st and the 29th.

The bottom line is that if we are going to get significant filling of Lake Lanier, February and March will be the months that do it…

Let’s hope the predictions for the next few weeks come true and we can start to see some real progress in the lake levels.

Given the prediction of a warm, dry winter, I figured it was pretty unlikely that we’d see snow this year — much less see snow twice in a week!

It’s been fun to play in, but has it helped? Not really. The two storms combined only brought us about 2/10″ of water, which isn’t very much at all.

Lake Lanier continues to slowly rise, but it’s probably not enough compared to how much it should rise this winter. Sadly, it looks like our next good chance of rain won’t be until the end of the month.

According to the Lawrenceville Weather Blog, we’ve got a chance at seeing some snow (or sleet, or freezing rain, or ice) next week.

Accuweather almost agrees, saying that we’ll get “Rain, which can freeze on surfaces late”.  Whichever forecast you prefer, it seems like to be near freezing with some precipitation, which means it could get interesting.

Accuweather is calling for around 4/10″.  Even if it’s frozen, it will melt pretty quickly and give us a tiny bit of relief.  The lake has been holding pretty steady lately (we’re at the exact same level as last Sunday - 1051.28′), but this is the time of year when we really need it to start rising.

Dr. Jeff Masters, co-founder of the Weather Underground, has written an excellent article about the the state of the drought, the causes of the drought, and a look ahead.

Some highlights:

• We had a very dry year in Atlanta, but Birmingham and Huntsville were even further below normal.
• Droughts tend to run in two-year cycles every 25 years, with longer ones sometimes mixed in.  2006 saw normal rainfall in Atlanta, which points to 2008 being quite dry.
• Global warming likely has nothing to do with the current drought.  The globe has warmed by 1° F in the past 100 years, but the southeastern U.S. has cooled by 0.1° F over the same period.  No one quite knows why.

All in all, it’s a great read.  Check it out.

For the first two months of running this blog (October 15 - December 15), Lake Lanier got lower every single day.  December 15th was the first day that we saw a small rise (1/8 inch), after which it fell some more.

However, with the rain over the last few days (a total of 2.44 inches recorded at Lanier), the lake has risen by 5.28 inches in the last three days.  Over half of that gain was yesterday, when the lake rose by 2.76 inches.

The other good news from this is that any rain we receive will continue to help us for a few days, because less water will need to be released from the lake as a result.  We covered that effect more in-depth a few months ago.  With no rain today, the lake is still up by about an inch (though the daily release is scheduled for later this evening).

The drought obviously isn’t over (the lake is still 20 feet low), but how good is this news?  Is it exciting that the lake has risen this much in the past few days?  Or is it just a blip on the radar and we’re still in deep, deep trouble?  Leave your thoughts in the comments.