Atlanta Water Shortage

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has decided that the flow from Lake Lanier can be reduced, but the flow cannot go down by 16% as first planned (view the PDF that they released).  Florida Gov. Charlie Crist has said that Florida may sue if less water is sent to them, so expect that to happen shortly.

Instead, they’re allowing a 10% reduction (5% at first, 10% soon after), which cuts the necessary flow in Florida from 5,000 cfs (3.23 billion gallons/day) to 4,500 cfs (2.9 billion gallons/day).

Some news agencies are a bit confused about what this means. This does not mean a 10% reduction in the amount of water coming from Lake Lanier. It means a 10% reduction in the amount of water that must reach Apalachicola Bay, which then results in an unknown reduction in the amount released from Lake Lanier.

To maintain the necessary flow rate at the bay, the Corps has to factor in all of the water users south of Buford dam, as well as all of the small creeks and tributaries that feed back in. Because of the creeks that feed into the river, Lanier can provide less than 5,000 cfs and the river will gain the rest of the water from other sources as it heads south.

The outflow from Lanier varies a bit from day to day, but 3,500 cfs is a typical number lately. Assuming that was consistent, it could now drop to 3,000 cfs which would be about a 15% reduction. I think that’s a fair number to use for now.

Of course if things keep drying up, those other creeks and tributaries will provide less and less water the river, which means the releases from Lanier will need to slowly keep climbing.  Also, as we’ve said before, as the lake level gets lower the level will begin to drop faster and faster.

I’ve heard a number of sources say that this means that instead of 79 days left (still don’t know how they came to that number), we now have more than a year.  I have no clue where that number came from.  Anyone have any idea?

A decision is due tomorrow on the now-famous 16% reduction that we’ve been talking about for a few weeks.  The bottom line is whether or not the federally protected mussels can live with less water.  If so, that’s exactly what they’ll get.

Georgia Gov. Sonny Perdue is obviously in favor of the reduction, Alabama Gov. Bob Riley is ok with it (as long as their nuclear plant gets enough water) and Florida Gov.  Charlie Crist is against the reduction.  No matter what the Fish and Wildlife Service decides, someone is going to be very unhappy.

The article also mentions that “we have 79 days” of drinking water left in Lanier, but they gave no indication of where that number came from.  Is that assuming the reduction goes through?  Or not?  What about rain?  Does it count the dead pool?  No idea…

Hopefully once a decision is made on the reduction, we can start to see some realistic “days left” estimates that are backed up with some supporting figures.

This is the big question. Some think prayer might help, but no one things it will fix the problem, and inspiring our kids to get more involved might be of value in 15 years. What about for now?

While we need a worst-case scenario plan in place (like in Lawrenceville), we also need to come up with two other plans:

1 - A short-term plan to get us into better shape for now.
2 - A long-term plan to fix it for good.

Our state government, to this point, is doing very little to help. The water restrictions are still way too lenient, and the water will still flow far too quickly from Lanier even with a 16% reduction (which I expected to hear about today, but so far there is no news).

How about a long-term solution? Jay Bookman at the AJC has written a nice Opinion piece that compares our situation to that of New York. The comparisons are quite surprising:

• Alabama, Florida, Georgia share the ACF watershed
  • New York, Delaware, Pennsylvania and New Jersey share the Delaware River watershed
• Atlanta draws most of its water from the upper Chattahoochee
  • New York draws most of its water from the upper Delaware watershed
• Atlanta has to worry about endangered mussels
  • New York has to worry about endangered mussels

The difference is that they make it work, while we obviously can’t.  The article lays out a fairly simple plan for fixing the problem:

Well, if the three states can’t agree on a resolution, maybe they can agree to submit to a process and a deadline. We should assemble a panel of outside experts, give them a year and a sufficient budget, and then make their final recommendations binding on all three states and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. You take out the politics and the posturing, and you get a decision based on the facts of the case.

It’s a good read.

According to 11Alive, a variety of new water saving measures are expected to be put into place today.  They include:

Dekalb County

• Homes build before 1993 will be required to install low-flow bathroom fixtures before they can be resold
• Stricter outdoor watering penalties — first a written warning, then a $250 fine, then a $500 fine, then the water is cut off.  Still seems too lenient to me…

 Gwinnett County

• Tougher fines, including $1000 for repeat offenders and doubling the water rate for large users that don’t cut back by at least 10%.
• Possibly a $100 per toilet rebate for people who replace older toilets with low-flow models, similar to what Cobb County did a few weeks ago.
• Ban on commercial pressure washing.
• Ban on car washing that doesn’t use recycled water.
• Reduction in the amount of time that landscapers will be allowed to water new lawns.

Cobb County

• Possibly will spend $250,000 to replace about 500 toilets in 77 public buildings with low-flow models.

Sandy Springs

• Possibly tougher outdoor watering rules, including banning commercial pressure washing and car washing.

Please note that none of these new regulations are in effect yet, but will be considered today.

Despite President Bush’s veto, the $23 billion WRDA (Water Resources Developement Act) was passed by Congress on Friday.

This covers a large number of projects across the country, including flood protection for New Orleans, Florida Everglades restoration and some new locks and dams on the Mississippi.

It also mandates that the Army Corps of Engineers will conduct a $7 million assessment of the watersheds and river basins in the southeast US.   It’ll be interesting to see what comes out of that.

The Atlanta Freethought Society plans to protest Tuesday’s upcoming prayer service. I’m not surprised that this is happening, as it clearly seems to be something that the government doesn’t need to be leading. The prayer service might help in a few ways (helping people better see their own wasteful ways, or maybe getting some help from above), but it’s not really something the government should be leading.

The speculation that they planned the event on the day prior to our next possible rain seems to be irrelevant now, as all of next week looks to be dry. Weather.com is now showing our next chance of rain on Sunday, November 18, while Accuweather.com doesn’t forecast rain until two weeks from today (Saturday, November 24).

While the 16% reduction in the water flow from Lake Lanier sounded like a done deal last week, now it looks like it might not happen.  From this article in the Columbus Ledger-Enquirer:

The Bush administration last week brokered a temporary agreement in which the corps would hold back about 16 percent more water in Georgia to help bolster Atlanta’s water supply while the state’s three governors work toward a long-term agreement by early next year.

The temporary agreement is contingent on a ruling from the federal Fish and Wildlife Service, which is expect to release by next week a biological opinion on how reduced river flows would affect the protected species of mussels and sturgeon downstream.

On a potentially brighter note, the Corps are now saying we have 375 days of drinking water left.  The problem is that no one has any idea where the number has come from.  We’ve heard a wide variety of guesses before, but the increased release rate should mean we have less time than those guesses — not more.

Just based on simple math we’ve got about 96 days until we hit the “dead pool” (19.3 feet left, losing about 0.2 feet/day), though that doesn’t account for the 16% reduction (if it happens) or the fact that the rate of drop will accelerate as the lake gets lower.  Based on 96 days, the dead pool would need to have about a 280 day supply in it to get us to 375, and I don’t think it does.

Facing criticism from local leaders, environmentalists and the fishing industry, Florida Gov. Charlie Crist  is now in opposition of the plan to cut the water flow from Lake Lanier.  He cites irreversible damage to Florida’s environment and fisheries.

He had no problem with the plan last week, but has since changed his mind due to the criticism he has received.

A few weeks ago, Gov. Sonny Perdue filed a lawsuit against the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to get them to release less water from Lake Lanier. Today, that suit was dropped.

In the words of Gov. Perdue:

“With the recent intervention by President Bush to compel our federal partners to come to the table, I am optimistic that this matter can be resolved outside of a courtroom.

I never want to resort to legal action to settle disputes, but the seriousness of this drought forced me to explore every option available to protect Georgia’s water resources.”

I imagine that the decision to cut the flow from Buford Dam had a lot to do with it.

[ PDF of the injunction withdrawl press release ]

(via WSB) Some progress has been made in the water wars, as leaders from Alabama and Georgia have isolated “areas of disagreement” prior to their scheduled meeting this afternoon with top Bush officials.

However, leaders from Florida did not attend, which seems like it will make the potential for real progress much lower.