Comments on: … so let’s talk about Ike!

By: Long-Term Wonderer

Long-Term Wonderer — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 14:39:13 +0000

I read/heard somewhere years ago that the jet stream or some other regular, climatological air mass is moving northwards, and in a few decades, lower Canada will be the agricultural center of N. America, as our nice, Midwestern climate shifts upward. The South will get the Caribbean’s weather, etc.

Sorry for the lack of technical knowledge here; maybe someone else can get more specific.

By: absitively

absitively — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 16:18:07 +0000

As we know, the “heat island” effect is local, i.e. the size of a city.

The effect from continental land masses is another matter.

Since land heats more rapidly than water, droughts are expected to be more frequent and intense with global warming. Predicting the location of a drought is dicey. However, I would think that since west winds predominate due to the rotation of the Earth, the Southeastern US would be a good candidate for drought as hot dry air from the continent is pushed to the east. Hot, high pressure air resists the influx of moisture.

I believe the computer models also show that dry climates of low to mid latitudes are pushed to higher latitudes with global warming, consistent with the recent droughts seen in Spain, Turkey, Syria, Australia and other countries.

By: WeathermanSteve

WeathermanSteve — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 12:40:00 +0000

Wow, a lot of wild speculation here.

Yes, this drought has gone on longer than usual. However, we go through cycles and droughts, and this will end. The drought still exists but it’s mailnly a small area mostly focused in the mountains and piedmont of SC, with lesser drought into northeast GA and western NC. None of that area is in a “heat island.”

http://drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_southeast.htm

Once this breaks we’ll be back to wet and milder condidtions. This winter should be like last winter…mild, dry, with some cold snaps into the 20s and teens.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead02/off02_prcp.gif

According to long range modeling…it’s not until March- Jun that we are back to normal for precip:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=7.

If that even happens. We’ll have to see.

Global warming is real and there is the possibility that the climate might shift and we’ll be drier, but my hunch is that we’ll get back to wet conditions within the next year.

By: rkolter

rkolter — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 11:53:51 +0000

Unless there is a different Heat Island than the one I’m thinking about, I’m not sure how the heat island that exists around any large city would alter the path of Ike, or how it would trigger a drought covering an area extensively wider than the city itself.

By: Linda

Linda — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 18:03:35 +0000

Maybe it’s time for a new thread here? Although Lanier seems to be holding its own, my flower beds aren’t. We haven’t had a drop of rain in Decatur in a month now. This is the longest stretch I can remember. My rainwater recovery system doesn’t do any good when there’s no rainwater to recover. Where are all those tropical storms? It has certainly seemed like every storm has avoided us, although I don’t think that’s data enough for a heat island diagnosis.

By: Chicken Little

Chicken Little — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 19:26:37 +0000

Max is over on the “Atlanta Gas Shortage” blog predicting empty tanks in 37 days. (Carol is complaining how her Hummer is worthless now)

By: RichS

RichS — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 17:06:39 +0000

Still waiting Max for something scientific that you can point us to…….

Until I see something I will just assume Max is personally contributing to the “heat island” effect by expelling copious hot air while bloviating.

By: Chicken Little

Chicken Little — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 10:39:25 +0000

“Chicken Little isn’t the problem, Chicken Little is the solution”

BGAWK

By: Someone

Someone — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 21:45:20 +0000

Maybe I need to make it clear, when I said in the above post ’someone’ spending time sharing his opinion I was not talking about C.L.. Useful and diverse opinion is what I meant.

I still like C.L.’s post though.

By: Someone

Someone — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 21:42:51 +0000

Wanderer, I guess when I typed that sentence I was thinking about Max’s post, and I agree with you on that C.L.’s post probably only has entertaining value. I was just kinda upset that someone spending time sharing his opinion and get flamed because he is a foreigner. I mean, I really don’t think he comes here to slam anyone, but only to raise some awareness of an issue he think exists. He deserves some appreciation in my opinion.
I actually start thinking the heat island thing can be possible. If the city has 5F higher temperature than surrounding area, that is really bad actually. Also, Atlanta area is definitely growing, there is no way a city doesn’t change in 20 years. Plus the traffic here is one of the worst in the country.
Back to C.L., I really don’t find him annoying, maybe because I hang around in car forum too much.
Anyway, I would like to see some heat island information from Max too, just out of curiosity.