Could Fay bring us some rain?
The latest computer models are showing that Tropical Storm Fay could hit the Florida panhandle and travel north into Georgia during the middle of next week.
We’ve said for a while that what Lake Lanier needs is a tropical storm to dump a ton of rain onto it. It’s a longshot, but this could be the one. It’s certainly worth keeping an eye on.
Tags: fay, hurricane, lake lanier, tropical storm
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August 16th, 2008 at 6:43 am
If it does…dead pool in 4,927,681 days.
bee to the aye to the gee to the dubya kay
August 17th, 2008 at 5:52 am
Tropical Storm Fay may be coming our way. It could pass right over the Lanier drainage basin or it could miss the basin by such a wide margin that it has no direct impact on Lanier’s level. That being said, some computer models currently show potential rainfall amounts in north Georgia of 10 inches from Fay. The following calculations are for informational purposes. They are not predictions, they are calculations based on the stated assumptions.
1) How much rain falling in a rather short period of time over the entire 1040 sq mi Lanier drainage basin would be necessary to raise Lanier from its current 1054 ft to full summer pool of 1071 ft? Assume that 2 inches of the rain is lost to recharge. Answer: 12.6 inches. Note that under this scenario, flash flooding throughout the rain affected areas would be a major concern.
2) How much would Lanier rise from its current level of 1054 ft if 7 inches of rain fell in a rather short period of time over the entire 1040 sq mi Lanier drainage basin? Assume that 2 inches of those 7 inches are lost to recharge. Answer: 1062.5 ft.
Calculations are based on USACE’s Lanier capacity table (the 0.1 inch increment table, not the inaccurate pdf graph).
– DSO –
August 17th, 2008 at 6:53 am
Correction to my previous post. The last line should read, “Calculations are based on USACE’s Lanier capacity table (the 0.1 foot increment table, not the inaccurate jpg graph).”
August 17th, 2008 at 9:55 pm
Fay is looking promising. For those who don’t have the link:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
The National Hurricane Center, which provides the predictions used by other agencies, the weather channel, and so on.
All their predictions generally have Fae running up the west coast of Florida, and then cutting in across Florida somewhere around Orlando. Those are the same predictions they’ve had running for awhile now. In all the predictions, Georgia looks to collect at least some rain.
It would really depend on how much steam Fae picks up or loses in the next day or two. It also depends on if Fae does something unexpected, like suddenly veer into the Gulf or cut over Florida early.
Cross your fingers.
August 18th, 2008 at 5:39 am
rkolter Says:
August 17th, 2008 at 9:55 pm
…Cross your fingers.
–
Why not pray?
Or a rain dance?
Sacrifice a virgin?
BGAAWWWKKKKK
August 18th, 2008 at 10:34 am
I’ve been reading these posts for quite some time and am glade to see others in Atlanta showing concern. But, this chicken little is a moron just looking for attention. Perhaps he should spend more time in the bathroom playing with himself?
August 18th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
In the past 12 hours, it looks unfortunately as if Fay will not be a significant factor in north Georgia’s water situation. The latest computer model runs, while inconsistent from run to run, tend to be bending Fay’s track eastward. While none of the models have shown reliable run-to-run consistency, the aggregate of all computer model runs shows an eastward-shifting storm.
More so, vertical shear across the storm is stronger than first forecast, and this is plainly evident in the latest NOAA satelite photos.
The upshot seems to be this: Fay may strengthen, albeit slowly (no repeat of the Hurricane Charley explosive deepening event), and may be a minimal hurricane at landfall. However, the storm track now appears poised to shift eastward, and because of the vertical shear, rainfall is apt to be much more pronounced to the east of it’s circulation center.
Fay does not appear to be the savior we await. We’ll need to look towards other solutions.
August 18th, 2008 at 8:27 pm
Don: Don’t feed the trolls please
August 19th, 2008 at 1:32 pm
Southernson: Thanks for the update.
Chris: Sorry, point well taken.