Warmest day of the year so far
It’s August, so it’s time to welcome back the scorching temperatures. The Lawrenceville Weather Blog is reporting that today was unofficially the hottest day of the year so far. Last August was brutally hot across Georgia, resulting in a significant drop in Lake Lanier’s water level. It’s unlikely that this year will be quite that hot, as it was the one of the hottest Augusts since 1980.
Despite the cooler temperatures, we could still see another large drop in Lanier’s level. As rkolter pointed out, last year we had a ton of restrictions and people were very water-conscious. This year there are fewer restrictions in place and water is rarely in the news.
Last August saw a drop of 2.37 feet (1064.14 to 1061.77). Do you think August will see a greater drop, a lesser drop, or no drop at all?
Tags: Lanier, rainfall, Restrictions, temperatures
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August 6th, 2008 at 10:35 pm
Hard to say, but I notice that Lanier lake data is not getting posted to the wiki page on a consistent basis. Where’s the data for the last 4 days?
August 6th, 2008 at 10:47 pm
Here’s the data at Buford Dam, Stephanie:
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ga/nwis/uv?cb_00062=on&format=html&period=3&site_no=02334400
You can pick one of several options, but Reservoir Elevation and Reservoir Storage are the two key components.
August 6th, 2008 at 10:52 pm
Oh, wait. Prediction. Well, guess, really.
My guess is 1.70 feet through August. That is 0.055 feet/day, just about.
Maybe we should come back to this thread at the start of September and see who guesses closest. Winner gets some prize Mickey could dig up.
August 7th, 2008 at 8:01 am
The US Army Corps of Engineers predicts a Lanier drop of 1.77 ft in August based on this year’s altered ACF management policy, current ACF conservation storage, and the assumption that inflows this month will be less than last month but more than August 2007. That is all the prediction I need. It all boils down to conjecture about how much it will or won’t rain in August. End of story.
On another note, total Lanier inflow is down by 16% this year over the same period last year. Let’s crunch some numbers. If last year’s outflows through July were applied to this year’s inflows through July then Lanier would have been at 1049.8 ft on August 1, one foot lower than last year’s all time record low of 1050.8 ft.
– DSO –
August 8th, 2008 at 5:54 am
rkolter Says:
Maybe we should come back to this thread at the start of September and see who guesses closest. Winner gets some prize Mickey could dig up.
–
His “life savings” from that hole in his backyard where he’s buried it?
How about, “dressing up in a chicken suit and standing on the streetcorner holding a sign that reads, ‘i was a dumb*ss on the Atlanta Water Shortage Blog’” to the person who is furthest off?
August 8th, 2008 at 7:39 am
I’d say the blog had some bad data. National weather service reported the high temperature for Atlanta on August 6 was 94. I doubt there is that much difference in just 25 miles, particularly when heading north and out of the urban effect. Also, pleasantly, the forecast for the next few days is much less heat and much more pleasant weather. I’d say the lake doesn’t see near the drop in this August as it did last August. Last August had the different management policy, record breaking heat, and very low humidity. The heat and lack of humidity in combination took much more out of the lake through evaporation than normal.
August 8th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
Looks like declines in lake level are accelerating, with larger releases the last few days than we’ve seen for a while - see link below.
Combine that with less inflow, and result is not good. Lake is below where it was at the same time last year, with a couple more months of normal decline until the usual late winter/spring recovery period.
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ga/nwis/uv/?site_no=02334430&PARAmeter_cd=00065,00060,00062
August 11th, 2008 at 8:02 am
11 days of August Data: 0.81 feet lost (Depth), 25,000 acre-feet lost (Volume), 0.0736 feet/day depth lost.
That’d equate into 2.28 feet lost by the end of the month, barring any rain.
On the plus side there are a couple big thunderstorm complexes churning across the Atlantic. Maybe they’ll become hurricanes.
August 11th, 2008 at 12:39 pm
If most of the precipitation NOAA predicts for this week actually falls, which is about three inches, than I have to say the lake level may actually rise relative to this month’s starting point by Sunday. Even better, the entire river system, from the mouth to the mountains, is predicted to get a an excellent soaking. It has already started in the mouth of the river, and should start in the mountains overnight tomorrow. Lets hope and pray.
http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/midatlantic.php#tabs
August 11th, 2008 at 3:17 pm
rkolter Says:
That’d equate into 2.28 feet lost by the end of the month, barring any rain.
–
dear rlkoltre (and mickey since you deleted my post),
have you looked at the weather forecast for this week?
love,
clittle
p.s. BGAAAAAAAWWWKKKKK
August 11th, 2008 at 3:18 pm
hey i just thought of something
even if it does rain (god forbid)
we could still lose 2.28 feet this month IF WE ALL FLUSH OUR TOILETS 10,000X
BGAAAAWWWKKKKKKKKKK
August 12th, 2008 at 12:38 am
Water use down 20 percent
“The state’s water chief applauded metro Atlantans and North Georgians Monday for using 20 percent less water in June this year compared to June 2007.”
http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/metro/stories/2008/08/12/water_use.html
August 12th, 2008 at 12:40 am
..looks like less toilet flushing is taking place
August 12th, 2008 at 5:56 am
guest Says:
Water use down 20 percent
“The state’s water chief applauded metro Atlantans and North Georgians Monday for using 20 percent less water in June this year compared to June 2007.”
–
meanwhile, municipalities across the region are raising their water rates to make up for lost revenue to due REDUCED WATER USE
THE SURGE IS WORKING
BGAWWWKKKKKKKKKKK
August 12th, 2008 at 5:56 am
3 inches of rain forecast.
Yo Koulter - if it rains more than two inches, will you print your post and eat it?
BGAWK
August 12th, 2008 at 7:39 am
If I said that I would, and then said that I did, would you really believe me?
Besides, all my post did was give the current loss to date, the average loss to date, and say how much would be lost at that rate through August, if it didn’t rain. It wasn’t a forecast. It was just a snapshot.
August 12th, 2008 at 11:54 am
Do I understand that you have the ability to delete Chicken Little’s posts and you don’t?
They are so annoying, I’m done with the blog. Thanks for putting this site up, but this troll is just too annoying.
BTW, there’s another troll on a MLB sports blog who annoys everyone and he and CL fit the same profile of Internet trolls.
What you should know about these people is that they are very lonely, and by attacking people (the same targets), they turn these people into the “friends” they don’t have in real life. The more you respond to them (even attack them), the more they like you and consider you a buddy.
It’s very sad, but can also become very scary if they fix on you and are able to identify you.
CL has stated that he is here to spread the truth, as if the users of this board are his children, he is our father (and yes, he’s a male), and he’s contributing some great good to society (saving Metro Atlanta from . . . ?). No one can make a contribution here or prognostication or conjecture without him mocking them.
What a sad, loney person.
Anyway, thanks again for the blog and goodbye.
August 12th, 2008 at 3:15 pm
You’d be amazed at how many of his comments I delete…
August 13th, 2008 at 11:12 am
Did the big 3 inch downpour happen? I don’t notice it in the lake levels posted yet.
August 13th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
I just updated the levels. The lake got almost nothing (0.05 inches) and dropped about another inch as a result.
However, there was a good bit of rain south of Atlanta, which means they should be able to hold more in the lake for the next few days.
August 13th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
Mickey - that’d only be true if Lanier were releasing to fill other reseveroirs or for downstream needs. It’s releasing to dilute Atlanta’s outflow though. The rain might help the day that it falls, but Lanier will have to release regularly otherwise.
August 15th, 2008 at 11:35 am
halfway through August 2008
last year we had week after week of 100+ temps
this year, unseasonabley cool weather
any “predictions” on when we’ll “run out” of water?
bee to the gee to the aye to the dubya kay