Monthly Lanier status update: August, 2008
It’s been a few months since I’ve done one of these charts, but I thought it was probably time to do another one. These next few months will be very interesting, so here’s where we stand right now.
I won’t say much else, since our previous post covered it pretty well.
Tags: chart, lake lanier, water level
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August 2nd, 2008 at 12:47 pm
At the start of August in 2008, we are where we were at the start of November in 2007.
Sounds about right.
August 2nd, 2008 at 5:42 pm
A friendly suggestion from a first time poster: you now what would make the graph above even better? plotting rain totals, with lines thiner and a lighter color shade of the corresponding year. What do you guys think?
Great website by the way!
August 2nd, 2008 at 6:01 pm
One final suggestion: Also plotting both the average monthly lake level and average monthly rainfall would be super nice!
August 3rd, 2008 at 12:01 am
[...] August 3, 2008 Lake Lanier Water Level Posted by Gray under Water Management | Tags: Drought, Drought Management, Lake Lanier | Stolen from Atlanta Water Shortage: [...]
August 3rd, 2008 at 1:53 am
Your lawns may be green but Lanier’s July inflow is down 31% from last year’s July inflow. The year-to-date Lanier inflow is the fourth lowest in Lanier history and 16% lower than last year’s inflow over the same period.
– DSO –
August 3rd, 2008 at 5:28 pm
I think the Atlanta metro has gotten considerably more rain than the areas to the north of Lake Lanier that feed into the reservoir. Atlanta is still below normal, I think, but not severely.
August 4th, 2008 at 8:11 am
I’m looking into the possibility of taking a job at Cisco but am aware of the national water shortage. What all is the GA govt doing in long-term planning to deal with this problem; I don’t want to move to a city where the price for water will skyrocket in the next ten years nor contribute to an already bad problem.
August 4th, 2008 at 9:59 am
[...] A somewhat sobering post at Atlanta Water Shortage. They chart out Lake Lanier’s levels over the last three years. Right now, the lake is down [...]
August 4th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
Komodo,
Come to Atlanta. It is a fabulous place to live.
I personally guarantee your supply of water for the duration of your residency.
Love,
C. Little
P.S. BGAAAAAAWWWKKKKKKKKKKK
August 5th, 2008 at 3:21 am
Komodo,
Yes indeed, come to Atlanta — the economic powerhouse of the southeast USA. Last year’s massive Lanier drawdown was the result mismanagement by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operating under an inflexible policy that allowed no contingency for droughts. That policy is now changed, and changed in Atlanta’s favor. And it will change again in Atlanta’s favor if the drought persists and conditions warrant. The US government is not going to let Metro Atlanta go dry.
Besides, Atlanta’s water consumption is not the problem and never has been. The problem is the massive quantities of water to which Florida politicians seem to think they have an absolute right – quantities that make Atlanta’s water consumption seem meager by comparison.
Florida’s demands, and the USACE policy that has quietly accommodated them through the years, would not withstand a proper court challenge. The current accommodation for the Herbert Scholz Power Plant in Florida is arguably illegal under the Water Supply Act. The current accommodation for “endangered” Florida mussels is a perverted application of the Endangered Species Act and is completely contrary to the original intent of the act.
The water authorities in the Metro Atlanta area are actively plugging leaks in their water distribution systems – leaks, it should be noted, that are typical of many large metropolitan areas. New regional reservoirs for Metro Atlanta have been completed and more are on the way. Atlanta will have sufficient water for decades to come. So yes, Komodo, do come to Atlanta.
– DSO –
August 5th, 2008 at 5:45 am
c’mon DSO, a personal guarantee on the availablity of water trumps your overblown explanation any day of the week
BGAAAWWKKKK
August 5th, 2008 at 7:12 am
Komodo -
Don’t listen to these fools. Move to St. Louis. We have ample water supplies to meet your needs for the future, AND the Budweiser Brewery. Our fountains all work, our grass is green, and we have waterparks! You might say we’re swimming in water. Or drowning in it. Want a slightly used sandbag?
More seriously,
There is a water situation in Georgia, not just Atlanta. It is something that can be properly managed. AtlantaWaterShortage.com is a bit misnamed - there isn’t a water shortage; there is a management problem. It should be a concern to you, but not a tremendous concern - you will not have air suddenly coming out of your water taps, or be paying gasoline prices for water. In fact, right now would be a good time to move with the housing market as it is, and with all the construction done in Atlanta right before it.
August 5th, 2008 at 10:18 am
Current Depth …………. 1054.88
Avg Chg since 6-1 ……. -0.0424
2007 Low Depth ………. 1050.81
Remaining to Low Depth …. 4.07
Days to Low Depth ………… 96
Date of Low Depth ………… 11/8/2008
Now two things to keep in mind - the “Low Depth for 2007″ actually occurred in 2008. So we’re ahead of schedule. Also, to reach the Low Depth by 12-31-2008, we only need to average a loss of 0.02750 feet per day (total depth needed to lose / days remaining from 8-5 to 12-31)
So, to sum. The math suggests this year will be worse than last year unless you guys get a hurricane. The data backs the chart.
August 5th, 2008 at 10:54 am
Be careful with linear predictions.
Generally , Lake Lanier start rising during the winter - over six feet from November to April, as loss do to evaporation and water usage decline steeply. Did you take that into account?
August 5th, 2008 at 11:01 am
Just evaporation this month should be much less than the evaporation that occurred last August, the hottest month 2007, when temperature rosed to triple digits multiple times.
August 5th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
rosed?
August 5th, 2008 at 12:52 pm
August is usually the hottest month, of 2007 or any other year. I’d say that a few degrees here or there won’t really alter the trend. Temperature isn’t the only variable in evaporation, and you really can’t say it won’t be hot as blazes in two weeks.
In 2007, the lake fell through December, leveled in January and climbed in February. The low point in 2007 was on December 26th.
In 2006, it climbed slowly from Oct - Dec (1 foot) and then jumped in January.
In 2005, it fell through November, levelled off through January, and climbed in Feb.
In 2004 it Climbed 1 foot in December, but then fell in January and didn’t regain itself until March.
It’s a fair bet that the lake will not start climbing in November in 2008; the trend suggests it may level off. More likely if the drought persists, it will fall as it did in 2007.
August 5th, 2008 at 5:34 pm
In terms of temperature, last August actually broke several records. Keep in mind hot weather does not only affect evaporation on in the lake, it tend to also affect water usage.
From another weather site, ..
“August [2007] was a record-breaking month in Georgia. In Atlanta, the first 26 days of the month had high temperatures above 90 degrees, and there were nine days where the temperature went above 100, tying a record set in 1980 for the most days in a year with temperatures above 100 degrees. For the month, the average temperature was 85.6 degrees, 6.7 degrees above normal. The high temperature of 104, set on August 23rd, was not only the record-breaker for the day, but for the entire month. You would have to go back to 1980 to see temperatures this warm.”
This August should be nothing like that.
If the lake continues the general trend it is currently at, levels off in November and than rises throughout December, than the it should end this year with a higher level than it did last year. Also, keep in mind that the other lakes in the system are doing significantly better than they were doing at this time last year, so there should be less demand for Lake Lanier’s water further downstream than there was last year.
From the weather blog at MyFoxAtlanta,
“Aug 02, 2008
West Point is about 6 feet above where they were this time last year and Lake Eufala/George is about 3 feet above where they were last year. That means more water in storage along the river basin to our south, less water needed from Lanier.”
All in all, I think the lake will end this year at least a foot or two above where it ended 2007.
August 5th, 2008 at 8:45 pm
Last year’s August was one for the record books, but what makes you certain five days into August this year, that you won’t have a serious heat wave and match or nearly match 2007?
I agree that more water is lost due to usage than evaporation as the temperature climbs - but you are the one who made the arguement for loss by evaporation, not me. I just responded to it. As for usage, what kind of usage do you mean? Last year you couldn’t water your lawn at all, this year you can, on some days. Last year washing your car was a social faux pas. This year, not as much so. Last year there was a huge push to limit water usage; this year, not as much so. People who avoided landscaping last year may need to put it in this year, and can water it if they do. I suspect that if we could look at usage numbers between last August and this August, they’d be similar even if last August turns out to be hotter.
You’re right that if the current trend continued only to November, then stopped, and the lake rose in November and December, that the ending water level would be higher than it is this year. I don’t think it will do that - the drought is not forecasted to end, last year the lake fell, and during previous years, the growth has been anemic in November and December. I suspect that this year the lake will do what it did last year, and continue to fall.
We’ll see!
August 6th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
You’ll be glad to know, Komodo, that since 1950, 30% of the Years in Atlanta have been ‘wet’, and 70% of the Years have been dry to normal. Would you call that a trend? If you want massive amouts of fresh water (the Floridan Aquifer), clean air, minimal traffic, and a growing (jobs) area, move to the Georgia Coast. Try west Chatham County first. You can catch Amtrac to NYC, or to Miami without waiting on Security to check you out. Walk the beach on Tybee Island, then have a dinner of fresh seafood, and wash it down with a cold beer, or two.
August 6th, 2008 at 6:16 pm
According to published reports Lanier is several feet above where it was when it was several feet below where it is now. What the future holds nobody knows but several people here at the Atlanta Water Shortage blog predict everything from the lack of available drinking water to falling house prices and economic collapse yet none of them are held responsible for their actions.
BGAAAAAWWWWKKKKKKKKK
August 6th, 2008 at 8:55 pm
[...] It’s August, so it’s time to welcome back the scorching temperatures. The Lawrenceville Weather Blog is reporting that today was unofficially the hottest day of the year so far. Last August was brutally hot across Georgia, resulting in a significant drop in Lake Lanier’s water level. It’s unlikely that this year will be quite that hot, as it was the one of the hottest Augusts since 1980. [...]
August 6th, 2008 at 8:57 pm
At least they’re saying something meaningful, CL.
August 15th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
DSO: Atlanta’s water consumption is “not the problem” ? I’m not following. It certainly is not the solution…AND
What happens to Atlanta when we hit $200 oil and $7 gas (or God forbid shortages) ? One way or another Atlanta, being one of the most auto dependant centers of economic power on the planet,is going to get a bad rap.
August 20th, 2008 at 5:33 pm
Was wondering if you could tell me what Camp Shoal Creek looks like right now with the water level? We are planning a camping trip for Labor Day, and some of our group backed out because they think it may be smelly and muddy. Any words would be helpful. Thanks