Monthly Lanier status update
It’s time again for our Lanier status update, and just like last month I’m quite pleased with the results. I had predicted that the lake would “drop a few feet” by June, but it actually rose by a few inches.
There are a few conclusions to be made from this:
- It’s wonderful that the lake held steady for the month. In the past two years, May saw an average drop of about 1.5 feet.
- We’re still nearly 10 feet lower than this time last year. With as bad as things got last year, it’s not good to be 10 feet below there.
- We’re closing the gap. A month ago we were about 11 feet lower than last year and we’ve inched a bit closer.
I’ll once again predict a drop of a couple feet for the coming month, but I say it with much less confidence. 
Any predictions from you?
June 1st, 2008 at 10:49 pm
I predict a drop to 1055.25 feet by the end of June.
I have no data to back up those predictions, but the USGS is only allowed to restrict water flow through May 31st unless they get an additional stay. A two foot drop isn’t unreasonable if things get tied up in legal wrangling and they have to start releasing from Lanier.
Although if you guys start catching some of our storms… I dunno. We’re a FOOT up on rain. Not our water systems mind you, but fricking rain, this year. Every time it sprinkles there’s a flash flood advisory, and we haven’t gotten into our rainy season yet.
June 2nd, 2008 at 6:14 am
Yes, wonderful indeed, but it should be noted that this year’s May outflow (total discharge) was the second lowest May outflow in Lanier’s history. With that in mind, let’s look at what would have happened to the lake level this May if some previous May outflows were applied.
- 2007 May outflow: Lanier would have dropped 0.85 ft during May 2008.
- 2006 May outflow: Lanier would have dropped 2.76 ft during May 2008.
- Average May outflow: Lanier would have dropped 4.23 ft during May 2008.
Last year’s May inflow was the third lowest in Lanier history and this year’s May inflow was the fifth lowest in Lanier history, up 30.4% over last year.
Now let’s look at the year to date Lanier data (January through the end of May) and put it into historical perspective. Lanier’s 2008 year to date total inflow was the fourth lowest in Lanier history. Lanier 2008 year to date total outflow was the second lowest in Lanier history. Only 2002 had a lower outflow (by 13.4%) during the same period.
It is clear that we have USACE’s “reality check” policy change to thank for Lanier’s gains so far this year.
Such predictions are a fool’s game unless made purely for entertainment value. Even the USACE can’t muster a decent lake level prediction. This year’s USACE Lanier 5 week level forecasts have been wildly off the mark as were USACE’s Allatoona 5 week level forecasts during Allatoona’s run up to full summer pool.
Meteorologists know better than to make such predictions. The truth is such predictions are just a crap shoot, and anyone who thinks they can predict Lanier’s level one or more months hence simply doesn’t have a firm grip on scientific reality. The rains could stop as they did last year, or, alternately, a tropical storm could come up out of the Gulf and dump 10+ inches of rain over the entire Lanier basin (indeed, there is a two-week model currently hinting at just such a possibility).
– DSO –
June 2nd, 2008 at 9:11 am
Imagine where we would be if the USACE had been managing previous years’ outflows responsibly?
And speaking of meterological forecsasts, the UGA CAES sure doesn’t have problems with putting out consistenly wrong forecsasts.
June 2nd, 2008 at 3:48 pm
Well, looks like my forecast will be off. Fish and Wildlife approved a five year extention on that water reduction. Apparently mussels don’t need as much water as they thought.
Yay!
http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/metro/stories/2008/06/02/lake_lanier_water.html
June 2nd, 2008 at 9:07 pm
Anyway, we have been talking about minimum flows previously. So I did a little digging to find the actual revised interum operating plan. You can see it here.
http://www.sam.usace.army.mil/ACF%20Water%20Resources%20Management/ProposedActionDescription-Modification_to_IOP.pdf
It isn’t exactly light reading so I have only scanned it so far. I think it is probably necessary reading though if you really want to know how the decisions for releases are made though.
June 4th, 2008 at 4:45 am
Good digging Rich.
This interim policy change is a good first step but it’s not enough. It’s not enough because from the outset the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) minimum flow policy regarding endangered mussels and sturgeon in Florida’s Apalachicola River has been based on an incorrect and perverted interpretation of the Endangered Species Act. The act was never intended to mandate that federal agencies must resort to extraordinary environmental engineering or manipulation to save endangered species from natural environmental events. Instead, the intent of the act was to prevent federal agencies from altering the natural environment in such a way that endangered species were adversely affected. The distinction is quite clear; the act does not mandate that the USACE maintain artificially high flows in the Apalachicola River during periods of extreme drought. Instead, the act merely requires that the USACE maintain the same low flows that would have naturally occurred if the Georgia dams had never been built. In this regard, last year’s massive Lanier discharges were not mandated under a correct interpretation of the Endangered Species Act.
The legality of last year’s massive Lanier discharges can also be called into question from another perspective. Specifically, exactly when was the USACE policy regarding minimum flows to support endangered species in the Apalachicola River adopted? Whenever that policy was adopted, it constituted a major operational change under the Water Supply Act and as such required Congressional authorization. Such authorization was never sought or granted. Therefore, just as in last year’s US Court of Appeals decision (Southeastern Federal Power Customers, Inc. v. Green - Dept. of Army, Case 06-5080, 06-5081), all USACE policy regarding minimum flows in the Apalachicola River to support endangered species should be annulled until such time as Congressional authorization is granted. During the hearings for such authorization, Congress would be forced to consider whether USACE policy regarding minimum flows in the Apalachicola River is a correct application of the Endangered Species Act.
– DSO –
June 13th, 2008 at 8:50 pm
[...] far this year, the lake has done pretty well. It even surprised some folks (like myself) when it rose a few inchdes last month. This month has been a slow but steady drop, down about 4 inches so far. Last June, the lake [...]
July 4th, 2008 at 12:14 pm
I have an invention that would save the country if not the world millions of gallons of water a day. I have it patented and am looking for investors to launch my product. I am looking for someone who knows how to market conversation. sjbrinson@bellsouth.net Thanks Steve
July 24th, 2008 at 6:43 am
I love the chart, has it been updated for July 1 numbers? I can’t find it on the site.
August 2nd, 2008 at 9:48 am
[...] been a few months since I’ve done one of these charts, but I thought it was probably time to do another one. [...]