Monthly status update on Lake Lanier
As we’ve done for the past few months, here is the updated chart showing the water level of Lake Lanier. I had predicted that the lake would hold steady (or maybe drop), but instead it rose by about a foot over the past month. A foot isn’t much, but it was a surprise boost.
As you can see, we should really start seeing a drop now. I’d love to be wrong again, but I fully expect the lake to drop a few feet before June arrives. As of today, we’re about 11 feet lower than where we were last year, and about 14 feet below full pool.
May 2nd, 2008 at 3:41 am
Hi everyone, I have not been here in 5 months…just wanted to say I am glad you got some rain this winter…you came very close to running dry.
However, I am sad that it appears to be business as usual with no plans for long term water supplies. The chicken littles of the state will enusure water problems for years to come.
May 2nd, 2008 at 8:36 am
If you think home prices are depressed now just wait until Atlanta runs out of water. Throw that in the mix with oil rising to $150 and sitting there for 3 years or so and meat grinding the US economy.
I guess the Middle East is in their Golden Age.
May 2nd, 2008 at 9:20 am
It appears my prediction may come true - There was a scheduled release yesterday, and there’s one today (I updated the wiki). The first week of May, may be the start of the water loss season for Lanier.
May 2nd, 2008 at 12:50 pm
I’m actually encouraged by this chart for 2008. IF (and I know it may be a big IF) we can get to November 1, 2008 with the same overall drop that we had in 2006, we won’t be too much below where we were at the beginning of January. And the chart suggests that might be doable.
Now, I know that the fuller the lake is, the more less slowly it drops (more surface area and all), but that fact is offset (somewhat) by other factors like - if you compare 2008 and 2006, we are starting summer out with more restrictions (cp. to 2006) and more awareness that things need to be closely watched (cp. to 2006) and more people trying to conserve where they can (cp. to 2006).
Are we out of the woods? Of course not. But it’s May and I never thought last December we’d be looking this good come May.
May 2nd, 2008 at 1:42 pm
Seven feet from the low point isn’t bad… but it’s not particuarly unusual for Lanier either. They did all but no releases and got it back up. But with the summer coming, well, just look at it this way:
A 0.04 foot drop per day, what we’ve seen with releases of about 1300 cuft/s gives you one foot loss per 25 days. That’s about 9 feet of loss by the end of November.
But a more realistic estimate might be 1.5-3 feet a month. Call it 2 feet. That’s a 14 foot drop.
I don’t see any real way that you’ll only have a 7 foot drop by the end of November. Let alone the end of January.
May 2nd, 2008 at 3:11 pm
rkolter: I’m not sure you understood my point (and you may not even have been responding to it). But let me restate it anyway.
In 2006, the lake dropped about 6′ from May 1 to November 1 (rough estimate based on the above chart).
Most people say that we are in the process of coming out of a multiyear drought and rainfall in 2008 should be better than it was in 2006. My point was that, if the lake only dropped 6′ in 2006 (from May 1 to the lowest point in 2006), isn’t it possible (perhaps more likely than not) that the same situation may happen in 2008? If it does, that means the low level of the lake would (in November 2008) only be 6′ below where the lake is now. If that happens, it won’t be great, but hardly a disaster (at least not in 2008).
The biggest flaw in my reasoning is that, as has been discussed, the lower the lake gets the faster it drops. But, as I said before, even recognizing that to be the case, there are countervailing factors that should keep more water in the lake in 2008 than in 2006 (other things being equal).
It’s all a guess, and who knows who will be right, but my own guess is that, come November 1, we’ll only be 6′ - or less - off where we are now due to a combination of these and other factors: (i) a beginning of the end of the multiyear drought, (ii) the already in place agreed lower water releases from the dam, and (iii) more watering restrictions in place earlier (summer watering for lawns accounts for a lot of outflows from the lake and much of this water is not returned to the river because it does not go through Atlanta’s sewer system). There will be a lot less use of lake water for that this summer (as compared to 2006).
May 2nd, 2008 at 10:28 pm
I’ve gotta agree with Walter here. Rkolter I have said before that your predictions seem a little pessimistic. A 14 foot drop is huge on any scale unless your historical perspective begins in 2007.
May 3rd, 2008 at 9:29 pm
I prefer to be a pessimist. It makes me feel much better when I’m wrong.
May 6th, 2008 at 10:26 am
Walter wrote, “Most people say that we are in the process of coming out of a multiyear drought and rainfall in 2008 should be better than it was in 2006.”
Nonsense, complete and utter nonsense. Lanier’s Jan 1 through April 30 total inflow was the fourth lowest in Lanier history compared to the same period in previous years. Lanier basin groundwater levels and stream flows remain far below seasonal averages. Orographic rains in the upper Lanier basin, usually a significant source of Lanier inflow, have been practically nonexistent for the past 14 months. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center shows an equal probability for above or below normal rains during the next three months for this region (in other words, their data and analysis support no prediction).
Unfortunately, even normal rains this summer and fall would not bust the drought. North Georgia needs rains well above normal this year to bust the drought. Specifically, north Georgia needs a few tropical storms to come up out of the Gulf and drop 15+ inches of rain over the entire north Georgia region, and no meteorologist is making such a prediction because no meteorologist can make such a prediction (think “chaos theory”).
So now we move into what is typically the lowest rainfall period of the year for this region during times of drought and you assert that “most people” say we are coming out of the drought??? Who are these people exactly? I haven’t heard any meteorologists make such a claim, have you? If so then cite them; cite them all, and cite the articles and publications in which such claims are made. After all, if “most people” are saying this then such citations should be easy to find. In the meantime read this,
http://georgiafaces.caes.uga.edu/storypage.cfm?storyid=3402
– DSO –
May 6th, 2008 at 4:38 pm
” I’d love to be wrong again”
LIAR
BGAAAAWWWWWKKKKKKKK!!!
May 7th, 2008 at 8:47 am
Ok, I’d love to be wrong because that would mean that the people I know in Atlanta wouldn’t be so bad off, which would be a great thing.
But I don’t think I’m wrong, and don’t like being wrong any more than anyone else does.
Stop crying fowl.
May 7th, 2008 at 11:56 am
that chart may be the most scary chart ive seen. if the pattern repeats its self in a normal sense it could get scary. I’ve noticed this week(5/8/07) it going down a little bit. I hope Im wrong, gotta bro in Newton County.
Atlanta in general has got to grow up. Its major city of 5 million or so. IT still treats public health, planning and environemntal issuies like a small southern burg. Where is all the money for improving public works and paying needed government workers an american wage? Have you seen state and city jobs? the pay nurses, cops, engineers, water treatment, health inspectors, etc like 1985 wages. Stop being a whore for developers and start thinking of the big picture. It may already be too late. The exhurbs are so awful here and I bet the ‘john” money is already gone.
May 8th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
Chickens - they’re just tasty rats with feathers.
I’m doing the predictions page again in the Wiki. Starting date is 05-01-2008.
Interestingly, there’s supposed to be no scheduled release today, but the water level just dropped .03 feet in a half hour. What’s up with that?
May 8th, 2008 at 4:45 pm
Hi Guys and Gals,
I am writing from very wet Eugene Oregon, we have two rivers and never a water problem. I work with people from Atlanta and am very shocked at the general level of ignorance about this subject. There is a lot of talk about the drought but very little mention of the tremendous challenge of dealing with it. There are over 2 million people being supplied by this lake (plus industrial use) correct ? Is the general public there facing reality ? This is no laughing matter and with such a high water demand a problem that is not going away any time soon.
May 9th, 2008 at 5:22 pm
Grant,
I think the general public thinks the crisis is over. The government has lifted some of the restrictions on water use, and the media seem to be ignoring the issue.
But those of us who read atlantawatershortage.com know that the problem is worse now than ever before. Lake Lanier has never been this low at this time of the year, and the only chance of it going up before winter would be if a tropical storm happened to pass over the lake.
I think there’s enough water for Atlanta, but unfortunately, we have to give almost all of the water to Florida and Alabama. They do not want their share to be reduced no mater how serious the drought.
May 10th, 2008 at 8:00 am
Meteorologist Kirk Mellish says,”….since 1950 only 30% of years have been wet, 70% of all years, entire years, were normal or drier than normal. Since 1990 almost half of all 68 seasons were dry. Since 1960, 51% of our summers have been dry…”, and he’s talking about metro Atlanta. Looks like a trend to me, and if it is, we’re not out of this by any means.
May 11th, 2008 at 9:05 am
Jim - I think those statistics are meaningless as presented. For instance are we using median or average to determine dry vs wet?
Say a wetter than average season may be caused by a tropical storm that dumps ten inches in a day. That wet season deviates by ten inches from the norm. Then we get ten years in a row with one inch less than normal rainfall. During those eleven years we total up exactly average. But you could say ten of eleven years had less than normal rainfall.
That may be the pattern in Atlanta - the years with more than average rainfall deviate from the norm more than the years with less than average rainfall. I think that is likely and if it is the case, it makes the statistics presented by Mellish meaningless. At least you can say he is not presenting enough detail to draw any conclusions.
May 11th, 2008 at 9:17 am
Gthierry - you are on target as usual. Just to amplify your statement “Lake Lanier has never been this low at this time of the year”
I would point out that we are approximately five feet lower than we have ever been at this time of year. Previous record lows for this time of year are around eight feet below full pool. We are now around 13 feet below full pool.
May 12th, 2008 at 5:28 am
as usual, you are all a bunch of IDIOTS
last year, you were predicting we’d be OUT OF WATER by January, the mass exodus from Atlanta would cause housing prices to PLUMMET, and neighbors would be STEALING water from one another
WRONG
BGAWWWKWKWKWKKWKWKWKWKWKKWKWKWK
PUT YOUR MONEY WHERE MY BEAK IS OR SHUT UP
May 12th, 2008 at 9:58 am
We didn’t predict we’d be out of water by January. And people WERE stealing water from one another. And thanks to the recession and the bubble in real estate bursting, housing prices are plummeting. Of course, we can’t blame that on the drought. Grr. But still, it happened.
Someone dip the chicken in batter and fry him up.
May 12th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
C.L. there was some confusion about what would happen at “dead pool”. This site was a leader in clearing that up. I think the predictions of likely catastrophe went away when we better understood that water won’t stop flowing at dead pool.
Nevertheless there still have been severe impacts from this drought to many sectors of the economy even aside from Agriculture. Economic impact is certainly in the billions and will probably never be counted up. How do you add up the businesses that didn’t move here because of water issues?
As to the doomsday scenario, you are right. It is highly unlikely. However that doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be discussed in a rational way. It should be discussed not because it is likely, but because it would be such a catastrophe, and because it is not only preventable, but would be an entirely man-made disaster caused by the federal government flushing needed water into the ocean.
May 12th, 2008 at 2:58 pm
material things don’t matter
May 13th, 2008 at 7:59 am
I dislike the concept that the doomsday scenario is somehow unlikely. It is only unlikely NOW. Had waterflow from Buford Dam not been restricted and allowed to flow like it had during the early part of the drought (and in non-drought years) and had people not conserved, the lake would be much lower.
And deadpool, while not such a huge concern after all for Buford Dam, IS a big concern to municipalities with water pipes going into the lake - many of which were close to uncovered by the low point last year, and which would have been left hanging in the air if we’d gone much lower.
Unlikely? Only because at the very last minute people woke up and did something. Still unlikely? well… let’s see how this year goes before we say that. Dropping 20 feet from this point would be a pretty significant hardship on the area, even if you still would have water coming out of your tap.
May 13th, 2008 at 2:06 pm
The problem with promulgating the doomsday scenario is that when it doesn’t come to pass, people feel as though they were misled. I know that’s not really true, but that’s the way they feel. There are lots of really good reasons to manage the available water much more carefully, to conserve the resource available as much as possible all along the way in order to make future economic activity possible.
I feel that rational analysis is the best policy, and while the “tail risks” - the low probability high impact disaster scenario is worthy of exploration, to use it as the driver of public policy is an unstable way to put across a message. I know that our media don’t like to do it any other way, but I still think that the base case - that water conservation and planning is necessary, is the more honest message to have as the main point of public communication.
May 13th, 2008 at 2:08 pm
By the way, holding steady month to date, and with rain in the forecast is excellent
May 14th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
You can have our rain. Jeez. St. Louis is drowning. Trees are actually uprooting because the ground is turning to mud.
May 15th, 2008 at 7:32 am
We’re at 1057.67 today (May 15th), which is the highest the lake has been this year. There’s thunderstorms likely today, and less likely tomorrow and later this week. How long can it last? I couldn’t find out much information about scheduled releases on the hot-line, only that there’s none for today and they don’t know about upcoming ones.
Maybe May will be flat or with little draw down.
May 15th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
I’m curious about the businesses affected by the water situation down there (hailing from the north-east). A news search says that it has (obviously) impacted power companies, landscapers and water parks, but what bottling companies? There’s a lot of beverage companies operating in Georgia. Does anyone regulate their use?
May 15th, 2008 at 5:40 pm
McCain sez’ Lanier will be back to full pool by 2013
BGAAAAWWKKKKKKKK!K!KK!K!K!!!!!!
May 15th, 2008 at 8:35 pm
Hi Kathleen,
I found this web-site that shows some of the watering restrictions from last November. You’ll notice most commercial activites are exempt from the watering restrictions. Car washes in particular use about 1% of the total water consumed in Atlanta. This doesn’t sound like much, but it’s a lot considering that counties were struggling to reduce their water usage by 10%. I do know that the car washes were required to reclaim some of their water or face a hefty fine and Coca Cola had (is?) made some efficiency gains to reduce the amount of water they used in their bottling plants but I couldn’t tell you how much.
May 16th, 2008 at 8:01 am
Kathleen - Other businesses directly effected - nurseries, car washes, swimming pool sales, pressure washers, boat sales, lakeside businesses that cater to the recreational crowd, probably lots more I’m not thinking of.
Industries that use water for their processes are not generally restricted, but I believe most are working to conserve water without having to cut back production and lay workers off.
Price increases might be an incentive for them to cut back more. That would be the free market solution. Water is in short supply - raise the price. Of course we would have to find a way to bill Florida and Alabama for all the Georgia rain we send to them. Maybe they would quit whining for more if it wasn’t free.