Has Lanier reached its spring peak?
Lake Lanier dropped by about 1/4″ yesterday, the first drop in about 50 days (March 4 being the last). However, with no rain forecast until at least the weekend, have we seen the peak?
Even if we have, it’s been a pretty good month. Based on historical data, I figured the lake would hold about steady for the month of April. Instead, it’s up nearly a foot for the month.
So, is this the peak for the spring? Or will it climb a bit higher? If this is the peak, what do you think the low will be in November/December when it typically hits the low point?
Tags: lake lanier, Weather
April 22nd, 2008 at 8:06 am
I will start running my daily predictions again once we see a full week of dropping values. That’s my personal definition of spring peak.
I do not believe we have seen spring peak yet - usually that occurs sometime in May. Although, the entire area that feeds Lanier is still under a level 3 drought. And the trees are starting to bud, which means they are starting to get thirsty (trees actually drain significant amounts of water from the groundwater, causing water to percolate into the soil from rivers and lakes).
My prediction is that we will see Spring peak sometime during the first week of May - in other words, that sometime during the first week of May will be the first day of a seven day string of water losses.
As for the low point… I am going to say we will be hovering a foot or two above or below Deadpool come December 31st. I think that number is still burned into everyone’s mind, and that the ACE will work harder than normal to keep it from going too far below that point… this year.
April 22nd, 2008 at 8:20 am
Addendum:
The measured inflow yesterday was almost 200 million gallons lower than each of the last five days. The measured outflow yesterday was almost 500 million gallons higher than each of the last five days. Leading to a net loss of 450 million gallons or so.
Seems that we had a bad mix of juju there - high outflow, low inflow.
April 22nd, 2008 at 10:10 am
Addendum #2:
We’ll find out tomorrow how things are going - there are ZERO scheduled water releases from Buford Dam today 4/22/2008.
April 23rd, 2008 at 6:15 am
rkolter Says:
April 22nd, 2008 at 8:06 am
… I am going to say we will be hovering a foot or two above or below Deadpool come December 31st.
–
IRRESPONSIBILITY REIGNS SUPREME ONCE AGAIN HERE AT THE ATLANTA WATER “SHORTAGE” BLAAAGGHHHHH
BGGAAAAAAAWWWWKKKKK
PUT YOUR MONEY WHERE YOUR MOUTHIS RKOLTRE - I’LL BET YOU 5 GRAND WE AIN’T ANYWHERE NEAR THAT LOW ON 12/31/2008
April 23rd, 2008 at 6:25 am
I don’t have five grand. I’ll bet you five bucks Lanier will drop to 1040.00 by 12/31/2008. That’s all my wife will let me wager against a person who pretends they’re a chicken.
April 23rd, 2008 at 7:51 am
So the level change was zero yesterday. What does that mean if there wasn’t a release, inflow equals evaporation?
April 23rd, 2008 at 9:08 am
Inflow equals outflow.
Buford Dam is constantly releasing some water. Just not additional water from a scheduled significant release. Also, there are several pipes going into the lake that municipalities draw water from. Then there’s a bit of evaporation, and there’s loss to the water table as it is drawn down by vegetation and people using wells, and so on.
April 23rd, 2008 at 9:19 am
During the official releases, the amount jumps to around 10,000cfs.
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:04 pm
Ahh, yeah right. Thanks.
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:11 pm
MAKE IT FIVE “CLUCKS” AND YER ON!
BGAAAAWWWKKKK!!!!!
April 27th, 2008 at 9:10 am
It rained some here in Atlanta and north of town a fair bit. None of that reached Lake Lanier, but there’s a little that’s being recorded today (Sunday). Also, there’s thunderstorms forecast for today and tomorrow, so maybe one or two will hit Lake Lanier.
April 27th, 2008 at 8:11 pm
Ouch!
Makes you wonder what else might be going wrong . . .
http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/metro/stories/2008/04/19/pulley_0420.html?cxntlid=homepage_tab_newstab
April 28th, 2008 at 5:25 am
H2Omigod! Says:
April 27th, 2008 at 8:11 pm
Ouch!
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However, that doesn’t mean Lanier would have those 22 billion gallons today — or would have when a watering ban was declared last fall — state and federal water experts say. That’s because the water was stored in lakes downstream and was used in conjunction with even more water released from Lanier. In short, the water would have been released eventually and would all be gone by now.
BGAAAWWWKKKKKK!!!!
April 28th, 2008 at 7:07 am
…and everybody seems to forget that by May of 2007 we were knee deep in a lack of rainfall, something that has not been the case this year
in any event, I’d like to take this opportunity to invite you all to participate in my new blaaaghhh http://www.AtlantaWaterSurplus.com
BGAAAAWWWKKKKK!!!!
April 28th, 2008 at 10:43 am
Leaks? Government fixing leaks?
No no no — Rush Limbaugh and Newt say the government are idiots. Cant do anything.
Forget government. We need private business to fix this.
When enough of us die from thirst, dont you worry, we will have all the water those that live through it need.
Government put those pipes in — remember.100 years later, many of them are leaking.
Quit depending on government. Drive up to Chicago, buy a truck full of water, and go back to Atlanta. Thats private enterprise baby.
Thats what gonna save us.
Government is ajoke remember?
Oh - and don’t drive on government highways on your way to Chicago. Drive on your own highway.
Government highways are a joke too.
SOcialism is so stupid!!!
April 29th, 2008 at 8:38 am
You’re right Mark. Socialism is much better. Please move to Cuba and spout your vile rhetoric there in the People’s Paradise.
April 29th, 2008 at 8:47 am
How dare you depend on GOVERNMENT to do anything, including water, highways, defense.
Coke should have been paid to win World War Two.
Pepsi should have got the contract for Vietnam — we wouldn’t have lost
I suggest rain making should be given to Blackwater.
April 29th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
Scandinavia seems to be doing quite well in spite of their having socialist policies. Also, I think that for a county that has 5% of the world’s population but 25% of the world’s inmates, to say nothing of the dismal scores on health care or education, you might you might stop and consider that maybe there is room for improvement in the U.S.
April 29th, 2008 at 9:03 pm
Socialist countries below according to wikipedia. Feel free to move to any one of them. I think I will stay here but if you think socialism is better, please go by all means. Sorry about the off topic post - I just have trouble not responding to partisan idiots.
Cuba
North Korea
Venezuela
China
Vietnam
Syria
Belarus
Sweden
Laos
Zambia
Turkmenistan
Other countries which might be considered Socialist, depending upon the interpretation of different factors, include Norway, Libya, Algeria, and Namibia.
April 29th, 2008 at 10:07 pm
Funny how you folks that hate government sure turn to government to save your ass when something goes wrong.
Sure is funny.
May 1st, 2008 at 5:46 am
Mark Says:
April 29th, 2008 at 10:07 pm
Funny how you folks that hate government sure turn to government to save your ass when something goes wrong.
–
Mission Accomplished
BGAAAAAAAAWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWKKKKKKKK!!!!!!!!
May 7th, 2008 at 8:51 am
Just tooting my own horn:
On April 22nd I wrote: “My prediction is that we will see Spring peak sometime during the first week of May - in other words, that sometime during the first week of May will be the first day of a seven day string of water losses.”
I may have been dead on - It’s dropped daily since May 4th.
Yay me.
May 7th, 2008 at 9:01 am
Of course, we may get some rain tomorrow. If we get a heavy line of storms to roll through, it might kick us back up above that. Unlikely, but possible.
If that doesn’t do it, then I’d say May 1 is probably going to remain as the peak.