How much should Lanier rise this winter?
(note: Guest post by Rich)
The typical annual pattern as most of us now know is for Lake Lanier water levels to drop during the summer and fall months and rise or recharge during the winter and spring months. The questions now are:
a. How much will Lanier rise this winter, and
b. How much should Lanier rise this winter?
There has been quite a bit of speculation as to how much Lanier will rise, but the truth is no one knows. We can however shed some light on the question of how much Lanier should rise by looking at historical data. You can see a graphical average of Lanier’s level here.
Keep in mind when looking at the average line, that it is artificially compressed because the corps of engineers manages the level by releasing more water as the level increases. Because of that, the most important data you can get from the average line is the trend of which months Lanier tends to rise and which months Lanier tends to fall. You can see that the main recharge period is January through March, and the main period of drop is July through November.
The best tool on this chart for information about how much it should actually rise is the action zone lines. The three black lines show Corps on Engineers “action zones”. The corps has four action zones which it uses to help guide their decisions regarding water releases.
As defined by the COE, “These zones were derived based on the past operation of the projects which considered time-of-year, historical pool level/release relationships, operational limits for conservation and recreational resource impact levels.” In other words, these levels show what the Corps believes the water level should be at any given time of year.
We are currently well into zone four – the lowest / worst level. So it is informative to look at the zone four line. You can see that it is around 1055 ft for the beginning of January rising quickly to around 1065 ft at the beginning of March. In other words, the COE considers 1055 to be a severely low level on January 1st, and 1065 to be a similarly severe low level on March 1st.
Let’s hope for ten feet of recharge this winter. If we don’t get it, we will only be dropping deeper into zone four with increased summertime demand right around the corner.
Rich
January 11th, 2008 at 8:47 am
Sorry I haven’t been around; great article Rich!
I’m still predicting 5.5 feet.
January 11th, 2008 at 8:52 am
Referring to the graph, if Lanier does get 10 feet of recharge between now and March 1, we will be in the same position as we are now (about 4 feet below the Zone 4 level). Maybe the COE needs to add Zone 5 (Deep S**t) to their chart and to their planning.
January 11th, 2008 at 9:32 am
Here is a great letter to the editor in today’s AJC. Says it all, in my opinion.
New hookups belie a crisis
I cannot believe that the metro counties are really asking the public to conserve water. Why? If it is truly such a drastic situation that we must let thousands of dollars of landscaping die, can’t go to public pools because they will not be allowed to fill them, can’t wash our cars in our driveways and can’t fill the kiddie pool in the backyard, then why do we continue to allow new water hookups for new homes on a daily basis?
If our situation is so dire that we might face water rationing or, worse yet, run out of water, why is there no effort to stem the growth of this area versus trying to find ways for the existing residents to suffer for the counties’ mismanagement of the crisis? When a moratorium is placed on new water hookups, I will really believe there is a water crisis. Until then, drink up!
Brent Scott, Grayson
January 11th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
Excellent point Coel. If there were a zone five we would either be in it now or moving quickly toward it. When the level hit zone five maybe it would be time to start cutting back releases which are supporting power plants downstream.
Zone four says - “Water supply and water quality releases are met. Minimum flow targets are met.” That’s a pretty loose definition. Are there other “water flow targets” besides the 5000 (4750) CFS requirement? Water supply for who? Cities, power plants, farm irrigation?
I have to think there are some more cuts that could be made for a zone 5.
January 11th, 2008 at 1:14 pm
You may be right rkolter. I’m not making any predictions. Sadly if we do get five feet of recharge, I see the issue going away in a lot of people’s minds while in fact we are just deeper in the hole.
January 11th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
Yup. Or worse, see no recharge - indicating not just the worst drought, but a drought of unheard of proportions, and yet have people see “minimal water loss in the last few months” as a sign that the conservation is working and that the issue is going away.
Y’all are in a heap of trouble down there.
January 12th, 2008 at 7:49 am
rkolter Says:
Y’all are in a heap of trouble down there.
–
WRONG.
Here we are nearly 2 years into a historic drought, and we still have water.
Let me guess, you all are a bunch of “glass half empty” guys?
January 12th, 2008 at 9:18 pm
I doubt that Lake Lanier will get a 10 feet rise before summer, because ACE still releases too much water from Buford Dam. The lake basically seems to be maintaining its present level. Come May/June the Governor of Florida, Charlie Crist, will demand that Lanier be drained to keep Lake Seminole full, so Florida can get the 3+ billion gallons of daily water release flow from Woodruff Dam.
January 12th, 2008 at 9:47 pm
Worst case scenario is Lake Lanier emptied out completely, by end of next summer, then all flow tubes left open from Buford Dam to release whatever water the watershed in the Georgia mountains produces daily. Call it the rebirth of Chattahoochee River before the dam existed. Watershed amount could be about 300 to 500 million gallons daily. Atlanta and everybody downstream will have to fight over it. If it happens then Gov. Crist of Florida can go to Hell, because eventually Lake Seminole would not be able to maintain the daily outflow of 3+ billion gallons of water daily-released from Woodruff Dam.
January 12th, 2008 at 9:51 pm
…water released from Woodruff Dam. (Did not need to use “daily” twice.)
January 13th, 2008 at 3:50 pm
[...] Accuweather is calling for around 4/10″. Even if it’s frozen, it will melt pretty quickly and give us a tiny bit of relief. The lake has been holding pretty steady lately (we’re at the exact same level as last Sunday - 1051.28′), but this is the time of year when we really need it to start rising. [...]
January 16th, 2008 at 8:57 pm
As of right now, with rain coming down, LSL is up 2.4 inches - 0.2 feet - over the last month.
That month, from mid-December til mid-January, represents about 1/5 of the 22 week recharge period. The recharge period runs from mid-December until the first of May (although the four weeks of April typically don’t amount to much, most of the recharge appears to be complete by April 1). Not a real auspicious start. Hopefully things pick up soon.
January 21st, 2008 at 9:23 am
[...] Lanier continues to slowly rise, but it’s probably not enough compared to how much it should rise this winter. Sadly, it looks like our next good chance of rain won’t be until the end of the [...]
January 25th, 2008 at 8:37 am
[...] This seems rather odd. An article in today’s AJC talks about a plan to ease restrictions on outdoor watering, depsite Lake Lanier falling further below its normal (seasonal) level. [...]
February 9th, 2008 at 8:21 am
ummmm. looking at the graph it looks like the current water levels are basically sideways instead of making the sharp upslope that occurs on average in February. Maybe it’ll pour in March.