What caused the drought and what does 2008 have in store?
Dr. Jeff Masters, co-founder of the Weather Underground, has written an excellent article about the the state of the drought, the causes of the drought, and a look ahead.
Some highlights:
- We had a very dry year in Atlanta, but Birmingham and Huntsville were even further below normal.
- Droughts tend to run in two-year cycles every 25 years, with longer ones sometimes mixed in. 2006 saw normal rainfall in Atlanta, which points to 2008 being quite dry.
- Global warming likely has nothing to do with the current drought. The globe has warmed by 1° F in the past 100 years, but the southeastern U.S. has cooled by 0.1° F over the same period. No one quite knows why.
All in all, it’s a great read. Check it out.
January 2nd, 2008 at 11:59 pm
I received a combined total of 3 inches of rain from the last 2 rainstorms, so if that continues for the next 4 months then the drought might be easing, but otherwise it will be a hot dry summer for Georgia and severe water shortages.
January 3rd, 2008 at 9:00 am
Thanks for the article. What was foreboding in it was his assertion that a) although this drought wasn’t global warming related, global climate change will create severe droughts in the future, so it’s going to be more common and b) that the population of Atlanta metro, which is 5 million now and will grow to 9 million does not have the water resources to sustain itself. We need to make sure that Georgia puts together a long term water plan, and I am open to desalinisation among other ideas. The author of the article also said that unlike most major cities, Atlanta was built around railroad crossings, not a body of water, making its challenges unique.
Honestly, the citizens of Atlanta metro are going to have to demand action on this, and kick any foot draggers out of office. I saw a poll in the paper the other day of Gwinett County residents, and water was now in their top 2 issues, tied with traffic. That is a good sign of public awareness.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:45 pm
Sadly, public awareness fluxuates with the issues. The moment this drought is over, the money earmarked for water resources will go to other things.
What you need is a law on the books that is difficult to remove, requiring some money being put towards water management and resources. Or better yet, a state constitutional amendment on the issue. Those are a bitch to remove.
Once the money is not just earmarked, but actually legally obligated, then it will get spent even after the drought is over.
January 3rd, 2008 at 5:55 pm
Are you guys still following this dud of a story? All the hype about the drought and running out of water was just “fear mongering” which I fell for lock stock and barrel of my 12 gauge. It’s time for a new cause - this story most likely will never play out to the dismay of many. Unless the ACE opens the throttle, we are not going to run out. Take your buckets out of your showers; remove your rain collection apparatus, drink your stockpile of bottled water…This is old news. The elections are coming up and will impact your lives before this drought ever will - its time to throw out the establishment and vote for Ron Paul - Ron will get the Fed Govt out of our lives (eg. ACE, Sen. Shelby, et al) and leave our decisions to the states.
See you all at the swimming pool!
January 4th, 2008 at 12:51 am
Sponge > do not be quick to write-off the drought. So far this January just record cold and no rain. What happens the rest of this month through April will determine whether Lake Lanier refills partially or empties out completely next summer.
January 4th, 2008 at 8:36 am
Sponge - first of all, this is not hype. The growth in Atlanta is real, as is our water supply which was not designed for a metro area of our size and growing.
Secondly, Ron Paul is not the solution, nor is removing the Federal govt from control. Do you really think the good ole boy state government is able to truly handle the 21st century needs of Georgia? Look at how we’ve handled traffic and growth, and our watershed management so far. Abysmal.
January 4th, 2008 at 9:03 am
Guys, don’t bother. Sponge only comes on to try to get people to vote for Ron Paul.
January 4th, 2008 at 5:14 pm
I do wonder if this issue will be viewed as “old news” in the coming months. Things like this tend to have a pretty short shelf-life in the media, and the recent rains might do a lot to turn off people’s concern.
It also seems like traffic has fallen off since mid-December on here… the holidays will do that, but it I’m curious if disinterest has set in permanently. Mickey, what’s your take on this?
-st
January 4th, 2008 at 5:18 pm
Traffic has definitely slowed down the last few weeks, though my posting rate has as well. Not much new news on this front, other than watching the water continue to recede.
You can gauge our traffic by looking at the top stories in the AJC, or on 11Alive or whatever. If they talk about water, people search for it, find us, and comment. If they’re not talking, things are slow.
That being said, the short-term forecast is pretty dry, so things might pick up again in a few weeks.
In an effort to keep this issue in the forefront, I really need to be posting more items on the blog. As always, please e-mail me (info@atlantawatershortage.com) if you have anything blog-worthy.
January 4th, 2008 at 7:04 pm
Folks - Sponge has been a gleeful catalyst of division and derision in every posting. Nothing more. This ignorant fool is not worth the dignity a response or consideration. Sponge-cake-for brains, if you ask me. Not sponge-worthy.
January 4th, 2008 at 8:45 pm
I enjoyed this article too, especially the statistic that 29% of the region’s precipitation was from hurricanes in 2005. I believe the reason we haven’t had a strong hurricane season the last two years is because of the El Niño/La Niña, but I’m not sure about that.
Also, this guy is being a little odd in saying that global warming is not the cause but could be in the future. That may be true that warming isn’t happening now, but the climate is a complicated beast and variability in weather patterns as things shift to a new equilibrium, or maybe this is the new climate pattern for the southeast U.S. due to changes elsewhere. This same effect is why some parts of the Antarctic is getting some more snow than usual, things warmed somewhere else to bring the wet weather. Another way to put it is that on average things are warming, but the standard deviation is so high that for a given area it is impossible to predict precisely what will happen. So you can’t prove it either way: climate change could be making an average drought worse, or maybe not. There’s no way to know.
January 5th, 2008 at 6:02 pm
Dr. Jeff Masters has quite a cautious supporting position on climate change. It is true that you can’t pin a specific areas of drought on global warming.
But recently the whole development of the study of global warming is that climate change is happening now, and more quickly than has been expected, and there is every reason to believe that the drought in the tri-state area is part of that development. We’re not talking about 2030 any more, but 2010, and really, that’s now, as far as Georgia is concerned.
I think, personally, it is very dangerous when people say “when this drought is over”. It would be much better to say, this may be the beginning of a long term shift in rainfall patterns, stretching from here to Texas, so let’s work on that basis.
Having said that, hurricanes may come to the rescue in a year or two’s time, but with a vengance that will be worse than the drought. There is increased energy in the weather systems due to global warming.
It’s true that the La Nina will roll over at some point and the old El Nino will come back. It’s also possible that, with extra heat in the system, it may even make the 2005 hurricane season look mild.
The El Nino, which brings hurricanes, has increased from occuring one year in five to staying around for a good few years. But over 2006 the weather was slowly turning back to la Nina.
But it’s also possible that the “persistent jet stream pattern [which] has set up that steers storms away from the region” will continue to steer storms away in the hurricane season.
January 7th, 2008 at 2:22 pm
Until the outdoor watering ban is lifted, this will be a big issue here.
January 7th, 2008 at 9:28 pm
How much energy is desalinization going to require? As we may be entering an energy-austere future, I think you really ought to re-evaluate relying on something that may require more energy than you’ll be able to afford.
January 7th, 2008 at 10:45 pm
Sean - I will give you a bit of an answer as to how much energy desalination will require. Just to pump the water to Atlanta, we are approximately 1000 feet above sea level. I found this calculator online -
http://www.ajdesigner.com/phppump/pump_equations_water_horse_power.php
I entered a figure for 500 Million gallons / day which would take Atlanta metro entirely off the ACF “grid”. That equates to 347222 gallons / minute to plug into their formula. I used 1000 feet as the head.
This comes out to approx 65 Mega Watts driving an 87,000 horsepower pump just to move the water to Atlanta.
As far as the desalination process itself, I found this reference
http://www.energycentral.com/centers/energybiz/ebi_detail.cfm?id=433
which says a “300-megawatt nuclear plant would be required to drive a desalination facility with a capacity of 1 million cubic meters of potable water a day” That equates to approx 264 million gallons per day - about half of what Atlanta metro needs.
So figure maybe 650 Megawatts of power which is a very nice size nuclear plant. In comparison, the Scholz power plant which we are sending water downstream to cool generates 85 Mega Watts.
January 8th, 2008 at 12:15 pm
richs - Thanks for the work you put into the energy question.
Assuming for the moment that the desal and pumping numbers/calculations are correct, the energy requirements to supply Atlanta with desalinated water are sobering. I have a hard time fathoming that when ALL OF US need to curb our future energy use, that building 650 MW of additional generating capacity to supply Atlanta with potable water is an attractive solution. That is, of course, in addition to the extra generation the south (nay, the entire country) will need to meet additional a/c demand.
I’m not discounting many other solutions to both the water and the energy equation. It just doesn’t seem that pumping desal water up to Atlanta will be among the solutions.
Having said that, I’m also trying to imagine a way past the present interstate compacts regarding water rights and ACF water entering into FLorida while verging on the pollyanna statement: “we must better manage the resources immediately in our back yard.” The watrer equation in Atlanta is complex, and I doubt that there is an easy solutions.
It does seem, though, that a problem this complex will draw on and strengthen: intellectual capital, community solutions, and community action. Atlanta’s water problem now will be other city’s water problem in the future. For Atlanta, 2008 may be a decisive year (I refrained from saying “watershed year”), but one thing very clear to me is that smart, concerned, and dedicated people make up the fabric of Atlanta’s communities. Much good can come from Atlanta’s experience with the water shortage, including a road-map of creative problem solving processes and techniques, as well as a sound water use solution.
Many Americans will be watching and hoping for Atlanta.
January 8th, 2008 at 7:26 pm
richs– Your numbers have proven my point, which is to say desalinization is NOT an option. As James Howard Kunstler has said, Atlanta may very well be a city without a future, especially if it is unable to even provide water for its residents.
January 10th, 2008 at 1:36 am
If you think Atlanta has cooled by 0.1 degree you didn’t spend much time outside last summer. It would melt your shoes righ off your feet.
To fix the problems facing swimming pools how about collecting rain water off roof tops maybe even putting a big tarp over all of the tennis courts to help the effort. We haven’t looked into anything but life as usual. Wait until old is $200 per barrel before you start looking at subsidised mass transit. Atlanta is spoiled and it shows.
January 10th, 2008 at 1:43 am
Here is the solution we use 30 gallons to shower, it goes down the drain as fairly clean water, then we use another 30 gallons to wash clothes it again leaves our hands half clean, and then we flush another 30 gallons of fresh never used water each day, are we seeing a pattern here. Multiply this by 5 million and you have a huge number.