Lanier rises over 5 inches in the last three days
For the first two months of running this blog (October 15 - December 15), Lake Lanier got lower every single day. December 15th was the first day that we saw a small rise (1/8 inch), after which it fell some more.
However, with the rain over the last few days (a total of 2.44 inches recorded at Lanier), the lake has risen by 5.28 inches in the last three days. Over half of that gain was yesterday, when the lake rose by 2.76 inches.
The other good news from this is that any rain we receive will continue to help us for a few days, because less water will need to be released from the lake as a result. We covered that effect more in-depth a few months ago. With no rain today, the lake is still up by about an inch (though the daily release is scheduled for later this evening).
The drought obviously isn’t over (the lake is still 20 feet low), but how good is this news? Is it exciting that the lake has risen this much in the past few days? Or is it just a blip on the radar and we’re still in deep, deep trouble? Leave your thoughts in the comments.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:48 am
So, is this a response to that prayer for rain or not? What is the statute of limitations for a rain prayer anyway? One day, two weeks, two months–can we say that this is a cause-effect relationship or not? Better start prayin’ some more, just in case.
December 31st, 2007 at 1:07 pm
Any increase is good news to me- it gives us more breathing room. But it also makes me worried that the local and state govt’s will see this, or any minor upswing as “the drought is over” and repeal all the drought measures. I’m sure the landscaping folks are already on them.
Ultimately, my concern is that, three years after being bombarded by hurricanes, we’re in a drought situation. I would have thought the region would’ve been set for a long time. It’s ridiculous how thin our water reserves are.
December 31st, 2007 at 1:40 pm
I agree with HBL, but I tend to be a pessimist and would be concerned that people would lax up on conserving after hearing the good news. So I hope we continue to conserve as stringently as we did last month.
December 31st, 2007 at 4:38 pm
Atlantan Says:
December 31st, 2007 at 1:40 pm
I agree with HBL, but I tend to be a pessimist and would be concerned that people would lax up on conserving after hearing the good news. So I hope we continue to conserve as stringently as we did last month.
–
It’s not the people who have been conserving we need to be worried about, it’s the people who didn’t bother to change their water consumption habits in light of increasingly pessimistic news concerning our water supply. I mentioned to an aquaintance that I took the pots and pans out of my shower for the first time in 3 (4?) months after the recent rains. He hasn’t changed his habits one bit, instead relying on “people like me” to do things like that.
USA USA USA
Bring on Peak Oil(tm).
December 31st, 2007 at 9:18 pm
Taken by itself, I reckon that this “rain event” postpones “crunch time” by about 2 weeks. So by itself, it won’t help much. In order to make it through the summer, we’ll need several more of these. The good news is that this reminds us that significant rain CAN fall in the region–even during La Nina–which is something that could almost have been forgotten this past year. So the next several months will be very key.
Of course, the summer is a crapshoot…one single tropical storm remnants that dumps 15 inches turns a dry season into something else entirely. and La Nina increases the activity of tropical storms, the only problem with them is…if they miss you by 200 miles you get NOTHING.
December 31st, 2007 at 9:40 pm
It’s encouraging to see that the folks reading this blog realize that more is needed besides a few days of rain and a few months of prayer. If our esteemed elected officials were as conscientious as the rest of the bloggers on this site, we might have a shot!
December 31st, 2007 at 11:24 pm
I have a question on the “release”. I realize there is a lot of talk of it going to AL and FL. But I am trying to understand what proportion of it goes out of state, and what proportion is used in Georgia. The City of Atlanta takes its water directly from the Chattahoochee River (so I am told) so aren’t they using part of that release? The northern suburbs (except Cobb) take water from Lake Lanier, and how much does that take the lake down (if there is no rain) prior to a release? How much of that “release” goes just to the city of Atlanta, and how much is taken from the Lake for Atlanta suburbs? I am wondering, because I have really been struck by the number of people complaining about AL and FL stealing “our” water (a dubious charge since it crosses state lines), when we in Atlanta metro use so much of it.
So in a nutshell my question boils down to:
1. What percentage of the release is for the state of Georgia downstream?
2. How much water is taken directly from Lake Lanier for the northern suburbs?
3. In the end, what percentage of Lake Lanier goes to FL and AL?
I think this matters in determining how much overdevelopment is responsible for our problems. And it looks like even without drought, we need new water sources asap. We should look at all options.
Obviously, I won’t breathe a sigh of relief until all the rivers and lakes are refilled, and a long term water plan is put into place so that Atlanta can withstand drought conditions without facing calamity. So in the mean time:
1. I will not wash my car
2. I’m still handwashing the dishes (using dishpans)
3. Timing my showers, and saving the water used to warm it up
4. Being spare with flushing toilets
I sure hope others are making an effort, too.
Here’s for a wet winter and spring in 2008.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:36 pm
Others can fill in the gaps better than me, but here is the general idea. Jim Woodruff Dam, which is at the south end of Lake Seminole, needs to maintain a flow rate of 4,750 cfs (it used to be 5,000 cfs, and it may be reduced to an even lower level later). The water released from Lanier is calculated to meet that level.
If it rains and there is extra water naturally flowing to Lake Seminole (both from the Chattahoochee and from other rivers), the amount that needs to be released from Buford Dam is reduced. This is the case right now as a result of the rain the past few days.
I’m not sure of all of the calculations that go into it, but they know that the amount they release will be reduced by what Atlanta uses, so they adjust accordingly.
I believe the city of Atlanta takes about 500 million gallons per day. However, they also return treated sewage back to the river (which then contributes to Woodruff Dam), but I have no idea how much water is there.
Anyone reading this, please correct me if I’m wrong, and please fill in any gaps you know the numbers for.
January 1st, 2008 at 8:37 am
Without significant rain, how long will it take Lanier to fall 5″?
January 1st, 2008 at 9:04 am
Thanks for your answer, Mickey. I do know that with the city of Atlanta, they return 70% back. This should be another part of the plan: that all cities and counties in Atlanta metro return at least that much, and that all septic tanks are eliminated from the metro area so we have a big return like this.
January 1st, 2008 at 9:22 pm
Beachmom and Mickey -
Actually the figure of 500 MGal / day is an approximation of the total water use from the Atlanta metro area that draws water from the ACF basin. It’s more than the city of Atlanta uses, but less than the entire metro area uses because a good part of the metro area isn’t drawing from the ACF basin. The more pertinent answer to beachmom is 150-200 MGal / day of consumption which takes into account the water that is returned to the system. Again, that figure is for the entire metro area that draws from ACF.
And in answer to beachmom’s original question - the amount used here vs. the amount sent downstream varies greatly because the release amounts vary greatly. If you look just at the time period that Lanier was dropping like a rock this year June - Nov, the average outflow from Lanier was 1718 CFS which equates to 2655 MGal / day. So if you figure 175 MGal/day for Atlanta metro consumption, then for every gallon consumed here during that period, approximately 14 gallons went downstream. I hope that helps paint a clearer picture of what was causing the lake to fall so quickly.
January 1st, 2008 at 9:31 pm
And I agree beachmom that replacing septic tanks with city sewer is probably one the most effective solutions to reducing water consumption. I doubt that it would be feasible to eliminate “all” septic tanks, but at least some method to encourage replacement of septic tanks with city sewer would be an ecxellent idea. Perhaps if cities were charged for water which was not treated and returned, they would be more willing to add sewer service to areas that are currently using only septic. Then if those cities changed their billing system it might push consumers to ask for city sewer. Currently most places if not everywhere, you are charged for sewer in addition to water. So septic users are billed less. That is counter productive if our goal is to treat more sewage and return it to the water supply.
January 1st, 2008 at 10:13 pm
…and at least here in unincorporate Cobb County (Mableton), the sewer charge per 1000 gallons used is somewhat higher than the water charge per 1000 gallons used, so the savings for a septic-using home is probably considerable.
January 2nd, 2008 at 1:23 pm
There’s no need to fear - January, February, and March are here!
Does anyone think Sonny will pray for a hurricane to sit over Atlanta and dump 8″ of rain?
Dear Lord,
Please send a hurricane to drop enough rain to flood people in low lying areas.
Love,
Sonny
January 2nd, 2008 at 1:59 pm
C. Little,
The rain god might not listen to Sonny, but he might listen to a little chicken. Read the story here:
http://www.wateryear2003.org/en/ev.php-URL_ID=6334&URL_DO=DO_TOPIC&URL_SECTION=201.html
January 2nd, 2008 at 2:20 pm
And once again the level of the lake is dropping. With no rain in sight again for a week ( or perhaps ice might be more like it with these temps) we may loose most of that big gain quickly.
January 2nd, 2008 at 3:40 pm
I’m wondering what the electric demands will be with the cold weather, and what effect that demand will have to use Buford for generation?
Here in New England, we’ve started to have “twin peaks” in our electrical demand. Summer air-conditioning demand during heat waves used to be our greatest daily demand. But recently, during the latter end of sustained cold outbreaks, the overnight period has been our highest peak demands…presumably because the longer the deep cold lasts, the more people turn-on their electric space heaters in one or two rooms to help drive some of the chill out. In northern VT (my stomping grounds) it would have to be in the neighborhood of -35 below for many consecutive nights before people will turn to electric space heaters.
I mention this because I don’t know how much of Georgia uses electricity to provide heat during cold snaps, and more so, how much generation capacity exists to meet a sharp (temporary) rise in demand.
As an aside, Vermont is just emerging from yet another moderate-heavy snowfall, the snowbanks everywhere tower over roads and driveways, and space to plow/shovel/push the snow is coming at an increasing premium…an old fashioned winter. But we’re also having our first real punch of cold, with today’s high temperatures of 5 degrees this morning falling all day on hard, gusty, wind with lots of snow drifting. The cold parts of the state will see -25 below tonight, and likely at least -20 below here at my house. The wood stove will be pressed into overtime service tonight.
January 3rd, 2008 at 12:14 am
Well 2.44 inches of rain raised Lake Lanier by over 5 inches from watershed runoff. I got kicked to the curb for saying a 2 to 3 inch rainfall could raise the level by at least 6 inches, but I was proved correct by this last storm. If the watershed gets heavy rainfall, then the lake can rise for a few days anyways.