Comments on: Drought to get worse in 2008? http://www.atlantawatershortage.com/20071222/drought-to-get-worse-in-2008/ Keeping you informed about the Georgia drought. Tue, 07 Oct 2008 10:18:43 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.2 By: rkolter http://www.atlantawatershortage.com/20071222/drought-to-get-worse-in-2008/#comment-2272 rkolter Wed, 26 Dec 2007 18:50:40 +0000 http://www.atlantawatershortage.com/20071222/drought-to-get-worse-in-2008/#comment-2272 And again, because it's also in the other blog entry... I have some better numbers, which you may like RichS - In the last 30 years, the average gain from Jan 1 through June 1 was 4.75 feet. However, during 15 of those years the elevation on Jan 1 was under 1066 feet; I took that to mean the ACE would deliberately try to keep MORE water in the lake, which is similar to our situation now. The average then? 7.51 feet. And 7 of those last 30 years the elevation on Jan 1 was below 1060 feet, and I assumed that would mean the ACE was trying desperately to keep water in the Lake. The average? 9.65 feet. So, I revise my position. A gain is likely given past water conservation efforts in the lake by the ACE during periods of extremely low lake levels. Further, historically, the largest elevation gains have occurred when the lake has been at it’s lowest point. As bizarre as it may sound, 10 feet is not out of the question, but still not likely, given past data. And again, because it’s also in the other blog entry…

I have some better numbers, which you may like RichS -

In the last 30 years, the average gain from Jan 1 through June 1 was 4.75 feet.

However, during 15 of those years the elevation on Jan 1 was under 1066 feet; I took that to mean the ACE would deliberately try to keep MORE water in the lake, which is similar to our situation now. The average then? 7.51 feet.

And 7 of those last 30 years the elevation on Jan 1 was below 1060 feet, and I assumed that would mean the ACE was trying desperately to keep water in the Lake. The average? 9.65 feet.

So, I revise my position. A gain is likely given past water conservation efforts in the lake by the ACE during periods of extremely low lake levels. Further, historically, the largest elevation gains have occurred when the lake has been at it’s lowest point.

As bizarre as it may sound, 10 feet is not out of the question, but still not likely, given past data.

]]> By: rkolter http://www.atlantawatershortage.com/20071222/drought-to-get-worse-in-2008/#comment-2270 rkolter Wed, 26 Dec 2007 18:08:54 +0000 http://www.atlantawatershortage.com/20071222/drought-to-get-worse-in-2008/#comment-2270 Posting this here too - not in any way to be a jerk, but because I realized belatedly that I responded to RichS in the newest blog entry, and it was a continuation of this conversation here. The last ten years of January 1 through June 1 elevation rises: 1997 - 5.5 feet 1998 - 4 feet 1999 - 5.5 feet 2000 - 5 feet 2001 - 6.5 feet 2002 - 7 feet 2003 - 3 feet 2004 - 2 feet 2005 - 1.5 feet 2006 - LOSS of 1 foot 2007 - 4 feet 10 feet isn't likely in even a normal year. The average over the last decade is 4.3 feet. And those haven't been drought years. Even the best year at 7 feet, isn't there, and sans drought in 2006, there was a loss. A winter and spring with no gain at all is entirely possible, and a loss is not out of the question, especially given drought conditions. Posting this here too - not in any way to be a jerk, but because I realized belatedly that I responded to RichS in the newest blog entry, and it was a continuation of this conversation here.

The last ten years of January 1 through June 1 elevation rises:

1997 - 5.5 feet
1998 - 4 feet
1999 - 5.5 feet
2000 - 5 feet
2001 - 6.5 feet
2002 - 7 feet
2003 - 3 feet
2004 - 2 feet
2005 - 1.5 feet
2006 - LOSS of 1 foot
2007 - 4 feet

10 feet isn’t likely in even a normal year. The average over the last decade is 4.3 feet. And those haven’t been drought years. Even the best year at 7 feet, isn’t there, and sans drought in 2006, there was a loss.

A winter and spring with no gain at all is entirely possible, and a loss is not out of the question, especially given drought conditions.

]]> By: RichS http://www.atlantawatershortage.com/20071222/drought-to-get-worse-in-2008/#comment-2266 RichS Wed, 26 Dec 2007 14:27:52 +0000 http://www.atlantawatershortage.com/20071222/drought-to-get-worse-in-2008/#comment-2266 Totally agree Wspurlock - If I had a disagreement with you a couple of posts ago it was really just when you said holding steady was best case. Anyway - it looks promising that we will have a wet December. Maybe the long term forecasts for winter are wrong. We can hope. Totally agree Wspurlock - If I had a disagreement with you a couple of posts ago it was really just when you said holding steady was best case. Anyway - it looks promising that we will have a wet December. Maybe the long term forecasts for winter are wrong. We can hope.

]]> By: wspurlock http://www.atlantawatershortage.com/20071222/drought-to-get-worse-in-2008/#comment-2256 wspurlock Mon, 24 Dec 2007 23:21:25 +0000 http://www.atlantawatershortage.com/20071222/drought-to-get-worse-in-2008/#comment-2256 Rich, your right but keep in mind what you said. In a normal year. This is anything but a normal year and I really don't see anything that would indicate a change back to normal. Do you? Keep in mind that every prediction calls for a warmer and dryer winter than normal which should result in not only lower inflow to Lake Lanier but a somewhat higher than normal evaporation rate. I'd say that a 10 foot recharge might be the very best that we could hope for in this case but I really don't see it approaching that amount. We are right at the point where we should start to see the recharge, and we are seeing just a tiny, tiny gain on a daily basis. However that could be accounted for by a number of things or perhaps a combination of several. By the end of January we should have a much better idea of what we are looking at here when we have some real numbers to use rather than the 100% pure speculation based on historical averages we are currently using. Rich, your right but keep in mind what you said. In a normal year. This is anything but a normal year and I really don’t see anything that would indicate a change back to normal. Do you? Keep in mind that every prediction calls for a warmer and dryer winter than normal which should result in not only lower inflow to Lake Lanier but a somewhat higher than normal evaporation rate. I’d say that a 10 foot recharge might be the very best that we could hope for in this case but I really don’t see it approaching that amount. We are right at the point where we should start to see the recharge, and we are seeing just a tiny, tiny gain on a daily basis. However that could be accounted for by a number of things or perhaps a combination of several. By the end of January we should have a much better idea of what we are looking at here when we have some real numbers to use rather than the 100% pure speculation based on historical averages we are currently using.

]]> By: richs http://www.atlantawatershortage.com/20071222/drought-to-get-worse-in-2008/#comment-2254 richs Mon, 24 Dec 2007 22:05:55 +0000 http://www.atlantawatershortage.com/20071222/drought-to-get-worse-in-2008/#comment-2254 Wspurlock - you say "The best that we can hope for over the next 3 to 4 months is for Lake Lanier to hold it’s own or perhaps a small increase in the level. " I am going to disagree slightly. The normal pattern is for Lake Lanier to recharge significantly over the winter and spring months. If the lake only holds it's own we will be in a world of hurt next year. I would say we will be lucky if the lake recharges up to ten feet of the twenty that it is down. Even that will make a tough next year - but we have to recharge some. Just holding the current level over the winter would be very bad. Wspurlock - you say “The best that we can hope for over the next 3 to 4 months is for Lake Lanier to hold it’s own or perhaps a small increase in the level. ” I am going to disagree slightly. The normal pattern is for Lake Lanier to recharge significantly over the winter and spring months. If the lake only holds it’s own we will be in a world of hurt next year.

I would say we will be lucky if the lake recharges up to ten feet of the twenty that it is down. Even that will make a tough next year - but we have to recharge some. Just holding the current level over the winter would be very bad.

]]> By: GThierry http://www.atlantawatershortage.com/20071222/drought-to-get-worse-in-2008/#comment-2252 GThierry Mon, 24 Dec 2007 20:28:33 +0000 http://www.atlantawatershortage.com/20071222/drought-to-get-worse-in-2008/#comment-2252 Corrected link: http://georgiafaces.caes.uga.edu/storypage.cfm?storyid=3299 Corrected link:

http://georgiafaces.caes.uga.edu/storypage.cfm?storyid=3299

]]> By: wspurlock http://www.atlantawatershortage.com/20071222/drought-to-get-worse-in-2008/#comment-2251 wspurlock Mon, 24 Dec 2007 20:17:38 +0000 http://www.atlantawatershortage.com/20071222/drought-to-get-worse-in-2008/#comment-2251 After reading over the presentation by David Stooksbury (thanks for the link, and following up with his article "Drought lingers despite recent rainfall " (http://georgiafaces.caes.uga.edu/storypage.cfm?storyid=32990) I fully agree with his comments and want to echo one important point. "While winter rains will lead to short-term improvement in soil moisture, stream flows, groundwater levels and reservoir levels, it is imperative that Georgians do not assume that the drought is breaking." The best that we can hope for over the next 3 to 4 months is for Lake Lanier to hold it's own or perhaps a small increase in the level. I get the impression that Stooksbury is very good at analyzing the data in front of him, and I can only hope that the Governor and others are paying attention to what he sys. After reading over the presentation by David Stooksbury (thanks for the link, and following up with his article “Drought lingers despite recent rainfall ” (http://georgiafaces.caes.uga.edu/storypage.cfm?storyid=32990) I fully agree with his comments and want to echo one important point. “While winter rains will lead to short-term improvement in soil moisture, stream flows, groundwater levels and reservoir levels, it is imperative that Georgians do not assume that the drought is breaking.” The best that we can hope for over the next 3 to 4 months is for Lake Lanier to hold it’s own or perhaps a small increase in the level. I get the impression that Stooksbury is very good at analyzing the data in front of him, and I can only hope that the Governor and others are paying attention to what he sys.

]]> By: RichS http://www.atlantawatershortage.com/20071222/drought-to-get-worse-in-2008/#comment-2250 RichS Mon, 24 Dec 2007 20:07:22 +0000 http://www.atlantawatershortage.com/20071222/drought-to-get-worse-in-2008/#comment-2250 I can't disagree with that one even though it's more long term than short term. I'm still not going to swap spit with you though. I can’t disagree with that one even though it’s more long term than short term. I’m still not going to swap spit with you though.

]]> By: notanumber http://www.atlantawatershortage.com/20071222/drought-to-get-worse-in-2008/#comment-2249 notanumber Mon, 24 Dec 2007 20:01:14 +0000 http://www.atlantawatershortage.com/20071222/drought-to-get-worse-in-2008/#comment-2249 Another idea - I also would require the Atlanta area metro water systems to set a 5 year goal and create within 12 months a plan to be at the 90th percentile efficiency on an international basis for the Infrastructure Leakage Index. Atlanta has admitted to losing almost a fifth of their treated and distributed tap water. Here is an interesting recent article on advances in leak management - http://www.iwaponline.com/wpt/001/0026/0010026.pdf Another idea -

I also would require the Atlanta area metro water systems to set a 5 year goal and create within 12 months a plan to be at the 90th percentile efficiency on an international basis for the Infrastructure Leakage Index.

Atlanta has admitted to losing almost a fifth of their treated and distributed tap water.

Here is an interesting recent article on advances in leak management -
http://www.iwaponline.com/wpt/001/0026/0010026.pdf

]]> By: RichS http://www.atlantawatershortage.com/20071222/drought-to-get-worse-in-2008/#comment-2248 RichS Mon, 24 Dec 2007 19:37:02 +0000 http://www.atlantawatershortage.com/20071222/drought-to-get-worse-in-2008/#comment-2248 Oh, and by the way notanumber - It seems reasonably clear from some of your earlier posts that you are a liberal. Please correct me if I'm wrong about that. So as a liberal - When you try (and fail) to insult me by insinuating that I am gay what you are really saying is that being gay is something to be ashamed of. Doesn't that go against your liberal philosophy? It should - but maybe you just embody the ugly side of liberalism without any of the redeeming qualities. Or maybe you are just a little homophobic because some part of you needs the tender touch of a man. Oh, and by the way notanumber -

It seems reasonably clear from some of your earlier posts that you are a liberal. Please correct me if I’m wrong about that.

So as a liberal - When you try (and fail) to insult me by insinuating that I am gay what you are really saying is that being gay is something to be ashamed of. Doesn’t that go against your liberal philosophy? It should - but maybe you just embody the ugly side of liberalism without any of the redeeming qualities. Or maybe you are just a little homophobic because some part of you needs the tender touch of a man.

]]>