Once again, the lake drops lower during the rain
As was the case during the last bit of rain we got, Lake Lanier dropped even further yesterday in spite of the rain. In fact, since this blog started (October 16), the lake has dropped every single day.
However, there is a bit of somewhat good news. The lake only dropped 0.03 feet yesterday, which was the lowest single-day drop in over a month. In addition, we should see less water released from the dam over the next few days, as the Chattahoochee will be getting extra water from the rivers and streams that feed into it because of the rain (explained a bit further in this post). In fact, the lake is actually up by about 0.04 feet for the day, though that gain will probably be erased during the evening water release at the dam.
The other good thing that could come out of the rain is that the ground is now holding more water. The problem we’ve been having is that each time it rains, the ground just soaks it up because it had been so long since the previous rain. If we can get some more rain the next few days, it would probably be more beneficial because the ground won’t be quite as dry. However, the rain that was forecast for this weekend seems to have evaporated and nothing is expected until late next week. At the point, the ground will be getting pretty thirsty again.
November 27th, 2007 at 4:23 pm
According to the climate experts at the NCDC, the La Nina weather pattern which results in drier and warmer weather for the southeast, is not “expected” to dissipate until late 2008. That means likely drought through next year, with the late being low through perhaps the early part of 2009. Just guesses, of course.
We need to plan for this NOW. Why our state is taking the attitude of deal with a crisis when it happens instead of truly planning for the crisis, is beyond me.
November 27th, 2007 at 4:34 pm
The last time the lake actually GAINED any depth was May 2nd/3rd of 2007. While it did maintain it’s level over two day periods a few times in June and July, it has never since early May gone back up.
November 27th, 2007 at 4:35 pm
I didn’t have data handy that went back that far. Thanks for the info!
November 27th, 2007 at 9:08 pm
This is off topic, but I’ll post this anyhow.
I just found out today that Atlanta’s waterworks is run by a private company. I’m wondering whether this could partly explain why the response to the crisis is so slow. There could be some confusion on roles and responsibilities… what the state, municipality and private company are required to do under new circumstances that were surely not envisaged when that 20-year contract was signed.
HeatherF in Ottawa
November 27th, 2007 at 9:42 pm
Heather, the contract with United Water was terminated years ago. Everyone said governement was to inefficent to run the water departement, but privitizing it was even worse and both parties agreed to end the contract.
November 27th, 2007 at 9:44 pm
Heather,
Do you have a link for that? Because the only privatization I know of was the United Water privatization of Atlanta water fiasco:
http://www.citizen.org/documents/atlantafiasco.pdf
Needless to say, it didn’t work out, so this current water crisis is all on the city and state now.
My theory on why the response is so slow, is because there is fear by Georgia officials that any moves to alleviate the water crisis, like more radical water conservation or water rationing, will hurt the economy. Any idea of shared sacrifice is viewed as out of their realm of thinking unfortunately, and they would rather declare war on Florida and Alabama, the Endangered Species Act, and the Mussels and Sturgons, than take a look in the mirror, and realize the problem and the solution will come from us in Atlanta Metro. Ironically, of course, by not acting now, the entire economy will tank if the unthinkable occurs.
November 27th, 2007 at 10:01 pm
Hello John and beachmom:
thank you for the clarification. Here is the link, which was dated January 2003 (but it was all I could find):
http://www.reason.org/commentaries/segal_20030121.shtml
The situation in Atlanta is truly unbelievable. And I can’t take any comfort in thinking, that can never happen here. Atlanta is a test case. How a major US city will cope with probable environmental collapse remains to be seen. You can’t live without water. I don’t doubt that the problem can be solved, eventually and for a high price tag, but at a terrible cost to human lives.
Keep up with your excellent site. HeatherF
November 27th, 2007 at 10:45 pm
“Ironically, of course, by not acting now, the entire economy will tank if the unthinkable occurs.”
The unthinkable won’t occur because with each passing shower people will think there is no problem. Enjoy the holidays while you can.
November 27th, 2007 at 11:18 pm
If the last storm had dropped 3 or 4 inches of rain on Georgia, thus not a bare one inch in the Georgia mountains that feed Lanier, then I would be encouraged. But alas the lake will eventually be bone dry sometime next year. Only unknown is the exact date of the last dregs sucked from the dead pool.
November 27th, 2007 at 11:33 pm
On the plus side, as of 10pm the lake was AT the level it was at this morning - and that’s with the evening flow. It appears that maybe tomorrow we’ll report the first gain in months.
November 28th, 2007 at 1:40 am
Just stumbled upon this blog for Ken Cook at Fox5 news. Could be a good source of commentary to check periodically.
Look at this recent posting:
http://community.myfoxatlanta.com/blogs/KenCook/2007/11/15/Thundershowers_Fizzle_in_North_Georgia
” Dear friends,
If we need affirmation that we’re in the midst of an historic drought in Georgia, then last night’s puny rainfall amounts bring home the point. Rain totals in Northeast Alabama were mostly near or above 1 inch, and southern Tennessee saw 1-2 inches as the storms moved through. But once the squall line moved into Georgia, it began to weaken and speed up. As a result, most rainfall reports were below one half inch; many were below 1/4 of an inch, and only a few exceeded 3/4 of an inch. There are many reasons why the showers weakened, but that’s what happens when you’re in a drought-everything goes wrong, just about every time.
In the wake of this once in 100 to 200 year drought, extremely high releases of water continue from Lake Lanier, on the order of 2.5 Billion gallons per day. Per a recent conversation that I had with high ranking officer at the Corps of Engineers Headquarters in Mobile, Al. on Tuesday, ” This will result in a 64 day water supply before the lake reaches the conservation pool”. Which is 1035 feet MSL. At that point, releases will be reduced because of the lower lake level and the design of the dam This officer assured me that Atlanta would still have one to two years of drinking water left below the 1035 foot level, even with the drought continuing.
I don’t know whether we should fell relieved by that or not. On one hand we’ll have enough water to get by on, but on the other hand, Lake Lanier will be nothing more than an expanded version of the Chattahoochee River surrounded by miles of desert. It’s certainly not the vision of Lake Lanier that I want to see.”
—–
What do you make of this information, that Atlanta will have 1-2 years of water left in the deadpool? Is this wishful thinking, or something to applaud? Haven’t we heard enough about the difficulties of obtaining/using this water to make such a comment sound uninformed? Also, does it seem like there’s a proper factoring of downstream water needs in this estimate? I’m not sure what to make of this information.
-st
November 28th, 2007 at 4:55 am
I have been tracking the water level of Lake Allatoona and noticed that the rain we received made only a momentary difference. Within hours, the water level was decreasing and the end result was the same as if it had not rained.
Allatoona is currently at 819.4 feet (MSL). Winter pool is 823 feet. I have been told, and I have read that the minimum draw will be 6 feet below Winter pool. This unofficial and unconfirmed level of 817 feet means we have approximately 3 weeks worth of drinking water coming out of Allatoona.
This does not directly affect Atlanta, but if true, it affects Cobb county where I live. (I also have an old houseboat on the lake. The water beneath the boat is down from a local depth of 34′ to 17′ and dropping daily.)
One issue I have found with the water management and media is that people are using numerous and differing units of measurements. Another issue is that many people view the water remaining as though it resides in a bath tub versus an upside down triangle. Still, some people ask why we we have a water shortage if the water level is so high (819.4 feet for Allatoona).
I created a graph for Allatoona that combines the information I have discovered so far. It is for informal, conversational use only.
http://www.jkmickelson.org/AtlantaWater/AllatoonaCapacity4.jpg
The hard part is confirming the 817 feet water cutoff. If this is true, then there is approx. 16000 acre-feet of water remaining (or 5.2 billion gallons). We are consuming roughly 200 million gallons per day (net). This leaves 26 days until water cutoff.
At whatever point Allatoona drops below its (unknown) official cutoff level, Cobb county will still be drawing water from the Chattahoochee. Cobb will still have water.
I am calling the question on this unconfirmed cutoff level. Does anyone know the answer? Does anyone know someone who can provide an official answer?
November 28th, 2007 at 8:35 am
One to two years of drinking water in the deadpool is… possible I suppose. Indications are that the surface area will decline much slower as the lake drains, meaning the lake’s level will drop faster. But, it is well over 100 feet of water as well. It would depend on how fast they pump the water over the dam, which in turn would depend on what they are legally required to provide downstream both to Alabama and Florida, but also to the other lakes that Lanier’s releases refill.
If the ACE said on tuesday they expect there to be 64 days of water, that falls close to in line of their “79 day” prediction they made on 11/15. However, we should note that they haven’t been releasing “billions” of gallons for several days now.
The lake dropped 0.01 feet today. Drat. Almost had an even day. Heck, almost had a positive growth day.
I don’t know the Allatoona stats, but I bet the ACE has them.
November 28th, 2007 at 8:44 am
ACE had set a morning release but I’m not seeing a drop off like we normally see during a release. I’m betting that they changes it to a PM release like we have had for the past few days. The one release yesterday and one today has to be a result of the larger rainfall south of Atlanta.
November 28th, 2007 at 11:13 am
I’d guess the answer to how long the DP lasts is contained in the answer to the question, “How much water needs to be in the Chat. River for the various City and County water works to function. If the answer is 500 CFS flow in the river is adequate, then the DP should last almost forever. If the answer is significantly higher, then the DP won’t last so long. The upstream Chat. River seems to flow into the lake at about 500 CFS. (Chat. R. current flow at Cornelia plus Chat. R. current flow at Dahlongia=446 CFS as of latest available data). So, when the conservation pool is empty, no more releases are possible without physically lifting the water over the dam, the gates are just left open, and whatever flows in flows right back out. The Lake is gone, and the Chat. R. is just back to being it’s good old river self. So, if 446 CFS keeps Atlanta in water, Atlanta’s in water. If not, then I guess you need to pump the difference over the dam. How big the difference is would appear to be the primary factor in how long the DP lasts.
So, is 446 CFS adequate flow at the water works to keep Atlanta and ‘burbs all watered up? I don’t know, but somebody must.
November 28th, 2007 at 11:53 am
The average inflow from May thru October was actually 369 CFS. November looks, just eyeballing it, to be about in that range. So call it 370 CFS through the drought so far.
Three things to consider -
1) The Deadpool will still be drained by anything withdrawing from the lake.
2) Atlanta and it’s burbs aren’t the only things withdrawing from below the dam. That flow must also, just within Georgia, keep other reseveroirs filled further down the river.
3) Alabama and Florida do have some form of legitimate claim on the water in the lake - how much may be in debate, but it’s just reality that they won’t simply drop their claims when the deadpool is reached. The water is important to those states and they’ll undoubtedly want some form of flow from the system to continue - which means that since 65% of the water from that system is in Lanier, that Lanier will have to keep releasing somehow when the deadpool is reached.
November 28th, 2007 at 11:56 am
oops, 1 cubic foot = 7.5 gallons, roughly. So that’s:
370 cfs = 2775 gallons/second
2775 gps = 166,500 gpm
166,500 gpm = 9,990,000 gph
9,990,000 gph = 239,760,000 gallons per day.
Atlanta’s population alone needs 500 million gallons a day. 370 cfs won’t keep the pipes full.
November 28th, 2007 at 2:57 pm
I am following your situation from here up north, in eastern Quebec in Canada, on a daily basis since I am aware of the risks that you are facing on a regional level if weather patterns don’t change for you in the near future. I can tell you that I haven’t seen (in the past 30 years at least) a more snowy month of November here in Quebec. I can assume that artic air is not goind down as far south as we used to see, hence condensating warmer humid air more to the north than usual. Weather forecasters and climatologists have started to forecast more snow in the winters for us for the foreseeable future. This is really a shift in weather patterns (climate as we call it).
November 28th, 2007 at 3:07 pm
rkolter - you are the numbers guru. So I have a couple of questions about your figures above.
I think the 500 million gallon per day figure is before conservation measures, and is for the entire metro region - not just Atlanta city.
Also I believe that is use not consumption. i.e. the majority of that water is treated and returned. Some of the return will be into Lanier above the dam for the more northern communities drawing from the lake directly.
Can you please clarify those points? I understand 500 Million gallons per day is a rough figure, but I’m not sure that 370 CF/s won’t supply this area indefinitely if the above questions are factored in.
November 28th, 2007 at 3:41 pm
Also, keep in mind that some parts of the Atlanta metro are using water from sources outside of Lanier (e.g., the Cobb County Marietta Water authority also gets water from Lake Allatoona).
November 28th, 2007 at 3:47 pm
Nobody has ever actually given a specific number on the amount of water consumed daily by the population of Atlanta, however the AVERAGE pre-consumption was 182 gallons per person, per day.
The Atlanta metro area has about 5,138,000 people - this includes 28 counties and is the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta Metropolitan Statistical Area.
http://www.gwcc.com/authority/clippings/documents/mar/03.22.07park.pdf
Water for the Metro area is handled by the intakes for Atlanta, with occasional exception - but those exceptions STILL take water from below the dam, so it is fair to count the population as about five million people (it’s actually about 5.3 million and growing right now).
If you allow for conservation of 30% - a figure batted around fairly frequently but probably high, then average Atlanta resident takes in about 127 gallons a day.
5,000,000 * 127 = 635,000,000 gallons a day.
Add to that the industry of Metro Atlanta, at a very, VERY conservative 25% of the total population intake (For another 158,750,000 gallons) and you are at a total of in the range of 800 million gallons taken in each day.
Now, wait you might say - what about the water being returned?
You’re right in that water is being returned - you’re wrong in that it’s not being returned to the lake. It’s going back to the river, where it does assist with those downstream. But, since it’s not going into the lake, it can’t be “reused” by Atlanta - anything Atlanta returns, it can’t draw from.
So in essence, you’re looking to suck conservatively 800 million gallons a day for greater Atlanta, from a 240 million gallon a day river (at least, during the drought).
Now, if you just want to talk about the CITY OF ATLANTA, that’s 500,000 residents.
500,000 * 127 = 63,500,000 gallons a day. Plus maybe double that for industry (the city of atlanta is where much of the industry lies) - so about 120 million gallons a day - half the entire river. But before you say “hey, half is left!” remember that this is only for the 500,000 people in the CITY. That’s 4.5 million people who also suck from that river, who are not included in this.
I guarantee you that really very regrettably, the river alone can’t give Atlanta the water it needs during this drought.
November 28th, 2007 at 3:49 pm
The 500 mil gal/day figure is the amount the Atlanta metro takes from the Chattahoochie basis, though, isn’t it, and not total metro consumption? If so, the other sources aren’t really relevant to the equation. Hmmm.
It would be interesting to see actual consumption numbers for the portion that involved the Chat. basin. That would give us some idea of how much Atlanta is actually impacting the total outflow from the upper Chattahoochie basin. I suspect it doesn’t have very much net impact.
I’d also be curious to see if parts of the Atlanta metro won’t more seriously consider implementing adding an extensive re-use program for the water taken from Lanier (use the water, process the sewage, put it back into the water system to use it again, process it again, etc.). Maybe putting it back into Lake Lanier itself.
I know the Marietta/Cobb Water Authority puts back something like 10-15 million gal/day into Lake Allatoona after treatment, so there’s some recycling going on there which can be reflected in lake levels.
November 28th, 2007 at 3:51 pm
I shouldn’t delayed posting for a couple of minutes to see the more detailed post by rkolter.
November 28th, 2007 at 3:54 pm
True about Lake Allatoona and Cobb County Prootwadl - however that’s a small portion of the total in the Metro Atlanta. Again if you just look at Atlanta alone, 1/2 the drought-condition river is being used just for the city - 10% of the population of the area. There isn’t enough left in the other half to support even a couple million people and industry, let alone 4.5 million.
The river, certainly when in drought conditions, just does not supply enough water to support a mass of industry and population the size of Metro Atlanta.
By the by - Atlanta can draw off Allatoona, at least indirectly you know. And it’s the biggest source outside of Lanier in the area - how long do you think that lake will last, when thirsty Metro Atlanta looks for another source of water because Lanier hit deadpool?
November 28th, 2007 at 3:55 pm
Heh. And I should have waited to see if you updated. Oh well, people will read the whole thread and figure it out.
November 28th, 2007 at 3:58 pm
Yes, Cobb County gets most of their water from Lake Allatoona with some currently coming from Lanier. However Lake Allatoona is in a similar situation to Lanier Should Lake Allatoona not be able to meet Cobb County’s demands for water they do have a emergency back up plan that involves more water drawn from Lanier. So at some point if things stay the same we will have to factor that in.
November 28th, 2007 at 4:10 pm
A huge factor in all of this tabulation is the other states’ needs — it seems most of the estimating above is operating under a near-exclusion of downstream stakeholders. We’re obviously doing a bit of a thought-experiment here, looking at inflows during drought conditions and determining whether metro Atlanta alone could survive off this quantity. However, the embittered nature of the 18-year Water Wars means that there is no way Alabama and Florida are going to relinquish their claims on ACF and ACT water.
The plain fact that there isn’t even enough to go around just for metro ATL, totally excluding all other users downstream, does put things in an important perspective.
Regarding Allatoona, the point I make above is very pertinent as well. The water in the ACT basin is equally contested between the states.
-st
November 28th, 2007 at 4:18 pm
Absolute truth. They won’t say “Well you hit deadpool, good luck with that, tell us when you have water to release again.” They have a legitimate claim on some of the water in Lanier, and if Lanier stops releasing or substantially cuts back, it will have a real world impact on both Alabama and Florida, who also rely on the water.
It is all but inevitable that the deadpool water will have to be drained from the lake. How it’s done, is currently up in the air.
November 28th, 2007 at 4:34 pm
bucket brigade?
November 28th, 2007 at 4:43 pm
Just found some hard current numbers:
“Because of the increased flows in the lower Chattahoochee and Flint Rivers, Lanier will not have to release as much water this week as it did last week.
“We were releasing on average about 2,100 cubic feet per second (from Lake Lanier),” Davis said. “As a result of this rain in the lower basin … we’re now to be able to reduce that — cut it almost in half — to about 1,200 cubic feet per second being released from Lake Lanier for the next several days.”
Davis said if the state received more rain, the amount released from Lanier could be further reduced.
“Rain anywhere is good,” he said.
Davis also said that the corps’ “exceptional drought operations” reduced the amount required to flow to the Apalachicola River from 5,000 cfs to 4,750 cfs. If drought conditions worsen, the corps can reduce the flows to 4,500 cfs and again to 4,150 cfs.
Jeff Fleming, who represented the US Fish and Wildlife Service at the forum, said the service has been working closely with the corps over the last three to five months to assess the health of the ecosystem where the endangered mussels and gulf sturgeon live in the Apalachicola River below Woodruff Dam.
“We immediately agreed with the corps that they could go to 4,750,” Fleming said.
The service is working to find out what flows are acceptable to support the endangered species, Fleming said. Historic flows below Woodruff Dam have been around 5,000 cfs, but the lack of data concerning less water flowing through the dam make it difficult to discern what water levels are safe for the endangered species.
More at: http://www.gainesvilletimes.com/news/article/1609/
November 28th, 2007 at 4:56 pm
Buckets are too slow. I’m picturing a long row of treadmills, elliptical trainers, stair steppers, and arm ergometers set up on top of the dam, with pipes to the dead pool and hoses running down the back side of the dam. It’s a win-win-win! People pay to exercise (so the City/County/State/Feds/Whoever comes out ahead). People are more fit. When our intrepid exercisers get home, they can feel good about their drink of water and shower knowing they may be using water they helped pump over the dam. As a final plus, this plan helps muscles in Georgia and in Florida!
What do you say? I think it’s a winner!
November 28th, 2007 at 6:18 pm
What is Alatoona’s record low level? Has it been reached. That lake has been dropping steadily this past month. Any other area reservoirs experiencing record low levels other than Lanier?
November 28th, 2007 at 7:07 pm
Allatoona will probably reach the record low in mid-December. See http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/metro/cherokee/stories/2007/11/20/Allatoona_1121.html for details.
November 28th, 2007 at 7:08 pm
The record low for Allatoona since winter pool was set at 823 feet above sea level is 816, set Feb. 3, 1961
At 7 AM it was at 819.40, Corps projections call for the lake to drop to 817.1 by Dec. 14.
November 28th, 2007 at 7:15 pm
Who gets water from Lake Allatoona and how much?
The City of Cartersville uses 12 million gallons per day.
Cobb County-Marietta Water Authority uses 43 million gallons per day.
November 29th, 2007 at 12:41 am
“Interstate Water Allocation in Alabama, Florida, and Georgia: New Issues, New Methods, New Models”
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3880/is_200704/ai_n19432556
I’m currently reading this book, published last year. It contains a collection of essays and histories examining the Tri-State Water Wars, and looking at various existing interstate river compacts in other regions to gain insights that the Southeast can learn from.
If the three governors would sit down with this book, we’d be well on our way to sorting out a future for the Southeast.
-st
November 29th, 2007 at 2:26 pm
Based on the data you have posted in the wiki I’ve taken the liberty of doing some rough analysis. The average drop for Lake Lanier from November 1 – November 29 was 0.13 (0.1293) feet per day while the average between October 1 through October 31 was 0.10 (0.1070) feet per day. Overall November has outpaced October with a drop of 3.63 feet month to date vs October’s total month drop of 3.2 feet.
If you assume that we maintain water loss based on the November average of 0.13 feet per day its only 130 days until the water level drops to the “Dead Pool” level of 1035 feet. That’s April 7, 2008 if you were wondering. From this point, again assuming an average drop of 0.13 feet a day it will be 892 more days until the “Dead Pool” is gone. That’s September 16, 2010.
What’s interesting if you compare October to November is during October there were 11 days with 0.10 – 0.19 drop in the lake while in November there were only 8 days where water level dropped this much. However, in November there were 9 days where the level dropped between 0.20 and 0.29 (with 0.25 on 11/10 and 11/11 being two highest days) while there were only 4 days with this much drop in October (0.22 on 10/16 being the highest).
If you look at daily patterns you can see the following:
Nov Avg Oct Avg Delta
Monday 0.1550 0.1400 0.0150
Tuesday 0.1580 0.1125 0.0455
Wednesday 0.1425 0.0980 0.0445
Thursday 0.1400 0.1240 0.0160
Friday 0.0675 0.0780 -0.0105
Saturday 0.0725 0.0650 0.0075
Sunday 0.1625 0.1375 0.0250
One of the things this analysis is missing is what is driving the increased drop in the month of November. Is this driven by consumption? Is it driven by the Army Core of Engineers? There are probably a multitude of contributors, but I would think if we could determine the top two or three root causes that would could focus on specific initiatives that could slow the rate of drain.
While I agree with others that we can not “conserve” our way out of this mess, we may certainly be able to prolong the availability of our watershed. I think we all agree that hitting the “Dead Pool” portion of the Lake is the least desirable outcome for all, save draining the Lake dry.
November 29th, 2007 at 2:28 pm
[...] Atlanta Water Shortage answers the question “Did the rain [...]
November 29th, 2007 at 2:42 pm
Good work, Brad. I think that when you try to analyze November you have to look at as two separate parts. The first part lets say is Nov. 1 to Nov. 16th, or before the ACE reduction, and the second part is the rest of the month. In the first part, we were seeing some massive outflows downstrean,. Once the reductions kicked in, we also saw two storms pass through the basin in central and south Georgia that helped to fill in the lower lakes which resulted in further reduced outflows from Buford Dam for at least limited time, say a day or three. In the case of the second storm we seem to have reached the end of that assistance now, with two scheduled releases for today - first time in 6 days. But the first part of the month far outpaced the second part. December should be interesting.
November 29th, 2007 at 3:41 pm
The estimate for the water below the deadpool is really not worth making right now - we know for a fact the deadpool water will drop more substantially per gallon than the conservation level will due to there being significantly less surface area. We don’t however, have any clue how much water the ACE will drain daily from the deadpool. I’m not making any guesses until then.
The actual date for the end of the conservation water if we kept on November’s average is 4/20/2008 - the current november average is .1285 feet/day. The deadpool predictor wiki page:
http://atlantawatershortage.com/wiki/index.php/Deadpool_predictor
The root cause for the increased flow in November was the ACE. They stated their goal was to ramp up outflow so the average was 1.7 billion gallons a day for November. But, then we got the 5% reduction, and the rain, and so for a little while there almost nothing was coming out of the lake (well, 0.01 - 0.05 feet per day, so comparitively nothing).
wspurlock is right - December will be an interesting month.
November 29th, 2007 at 4:02 pm
rkolter, if you want to do analysis of the days left counting dead pools, you might be better to consider reservoir storage rather than water level. If you go to this site
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ga/nwis/uv?cb_00062=on&format=html&period=3&site_no=02334400
you can change it from elevation to storage, and that shows how much water is in the lake, I believe that includes dead pool. You can see how it has been dropping over the past 31 days, and then you don’t have to guess about how the elevation drop will change as area decreases. Thanks for the number crunching, by the way, all who have been contributing
November 29th, 2007 at 4:10 pm
The reason I use the elevation data rather than the storage data is that the (first) critical point will be the deadpool level - an elevation data point. While there is plenty of water in the deadpool, we’ve already shown that it will be markedly difficult to get that level of flow out of the lake once the deadpool is reached.
The volume data is really interesting though - I actually use the site you provided for the real time elevation data. I may have to do some more number crunching. Glad it’s a hobby - Thanks!
November 29th, 2007 at 5:14 pm
I did the crunching yesterday you described. During the last 31 days (from yesterday) the conservation pool dropped by just under 18 percent, while conservation storage capacity dropped just over 21 percent. So, yes, storage drops a bit faster than elevation.
I too change in conservation feet above sea level/(1071-1035) and compared that to loss in acre feet over the 31 day period / conservation acre feet capacity.
I got the capacities from this site: http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/buf-pert.htm
Flood control storage, elev 1,085 to 1,070(11.48″) 637,000
Conservation storage, elev 1,070 to 1,035(18.91″) 1,049,400
Dead storage, below elev 1,035 867,600
This shows the upside down triangle effect that rkolter has mentioned previously. The dead pool has over 100 feet of elevation, from 1,035 down to 919, but far less capacity than the 19 feet of conservation storage pool.
November 29th, 2007 at 8:05 pm
Nicely done.
November 29th, 2007 at 8:49 pm
Scott, I added your elevation numbers to the Lake Lanier page in the Wiki, but just those numbers. If you want to add any of the other information please go ahead.
November 30th, 2007 at 8:17 am
ACE now claiming 2 year’s worth of water in Lanier’s dead pool is a falsehood. They said several months ago the dead pool held about 2 to 4 months max. By not drastically curtailing daily outflows from Buford Dam increases the likelihood of Lanier becoming bone dry empty by end of next summer. They seem to have NO idea how to add up or crunch the numbers on remaining water in the lake versus Atlanta area’s daily needs and for the power plants.
Once all the other reservoirs on the Chattahoochee are down to the dregs too,
then there will not be enough water to release 3.2 billion gallons daily from Woodruff dam, at Lake Seminole, to power the old Scholz Generating Plant, nor to artificially keep the flow high into Florida for mussels to flourish.
November 30th, 2007 at 8:36 am
Here is a storage capacity chart for Allatoona.
http://www.jkmickelson.org/AtlantaWater/AllatoonaCapacity4.jpg
1 Acre Feet (AF)= 325,861 gallons
The current AF for Allatoona is 176,000. This is 57.4 billion (B) gallons.
The minimum draw (unofficially) is said to be at 817 feet.
At 817 feet, Allatoona has approx. 160,000 AF of water.
176,000 - 160,000 = 16,000 AF of usable water remaining
16,000 AF = 5.2 B gallons
Using a net of 200 million gallons per day, Allatoona has about 26 days of water left. Using these same calculations, one can calculate the remaining days of water for Lanier.
Any change in rain, inflow, or consumption would reduce or extend the numbers of days. But not by much.
Atlanta is already forbidden to draw any more water from Allatoona.
By the way, it is a misnomer to call these lakes “reservoirs” since they are used for flood control and are drained intentionally at the end of each year in order to receive the flood of water from the late winter and spring rains.
November 30th, 2007 at 8:55 am
http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/index1.htm
Lanier Capacity (Corps of Engineers)
http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/bufacap.jpg
Allatoona Capacity (Corps of Engineers)
http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/allacap.jpg
Allatoona Capacity Clarified (JKMickelson)
http://www.jkmickelson.org/AtlantaWater/AllatoonaCapacity4.jpg
November 30th, 2007 at 8:58 am
JK > since Georgia is in severe drought there is slim chance of getting late winter or spring rains of any magnitude to refill the reservoirs this next year.
ACE seems to be favoring Lake Seminole, thus transferring water from the rest of the northern reservoirs to it. Last ditch effort for Florida’s Sholz power plant to operate as long as possible at Georgia’s expense.
November 30th, 2007 at 9:13 am
Some back of the napkin math -
1049.4 (1000’s of acre-feet) in the conservation pool
35 feet in the conservation pool (1070 - 1035 = 35)
16.86 feet remaining in conservation pool (1051.86 - 1035)
48% of the conservation pool remains
505.5 (1000’s of acre-feet) remain in conservation pool.
1307 (1000’s of acre-feet) of storage left in Lanier
– 801.5 in the dead pool
– 505.5 in the conservation pool
November 30th, 2007 at 9:21 am
It’s less than that. You’re assuming the conservation pool has vertical sides (the same amount of water at each level), which we know isn’t true. I’d venture to guess that the top half of the conservation pool has at least twice as much water as the bottom half of it. This means that if about 50% of the height of the conservation pool is left, then only about 1/3 of the water is left in there.
1049.4 * 1/3 = 349.45 acre-feet left in conservation pool, for a total of 1151 acre-feet left.
Of course, the 1/3 is just a wild guess. Someone else may have a better estimate.
November 30th, 2007 at 9:47 am
You’re right, but without an accurate gauge of that, I had to assume the very best case scenario - that the walls were vertical.
All my scenarios for the deadpool are best case scenarios, aside from counting down the 79 day ACE prediction.
November 30th, 2007 at 10:07 am
Side note - it’s interesting that the resulting value of 131 days - what you get if you divide 505.5 by the average volume loss per day over the month of November, is exactly how many days the AJC is predicting in it’s countdown timer.
I wonder if it’s coincidence. They still have never said how they calculate their timer.
November 30th, 2007 at 10:32 am
Maybe the federal governments wants to use Atlanta as an experiment, to see how people react to limited freshwater availability? Depending on what transpires in Georgia might determine the government cutting back on water usage for average Americans. Letting the rich use as much as they want would please the Feds, as long as we proles are willing to do nothing about it.
November 30th, 2007 at 10:35 am
Meant government NOT governments (plural) in my last post.
November 30th, 2007 at 10:46 am
As long as Georgian citizenry asks nothing about the extreme water level need for Scholz Generating Plant, below Woodruff Dam in Florida, then the excessive daily water releases from Georgia reservoirs will continue.
Scholz coal-fired power facility was built in 1953, and never retrofitted after dam above it was built, so it requires 3.2 billion gallons of daily flow in the river to operate. If we in Georgia can force its closure, then we can halt the outflow at Lake Lanier. Doing nothing means we have no water this summer.
November 30th, 2007 at 12:18 pm
The total acre-feet in Lake Lanier are 1,307,000 as of 11:15 am EST. Of that, 867,600 acre feet are in the dead pool. Thus 493,400 acre feet remain in the conservation pool.
Source for current water in pool:
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ga/nwis/uv?cb_72036=on&format=html&period=1&site_no=02334400
November 30th, 2007 at 12:21 pm
Jay, c’mon. You don’t seriously believe that the government NOW (as opposed to say, the government of the 50’s or 60’s) would actually try to get away with deliberately starving metro Atlanta for water?
Even if the desire was there, it’s just too easy to break a secret that big. I don’t buy it.
November 30th, 2007 at 1:23 pm
As a quick update, AJC’s countdown is definately not working on any formula I’ve previously proposed - it just jumped from 131 days to 168 days, while the lake’s water level has dropped and the volume has dropped.
Weeeeird.
November 30th, 2007 at 1:35 pm
Lanier Capacity Clarified (JKMickelson)
http://www.jkmickelson.org/AtlantaWater/LanierCapacity2.jpg
November 30th, 2007 at 4:47 pm
By the way, when Scott posted the current Lanier measurements (4 post earlier), what it means is that 160.78 billion gallons of water is left before the dead pool.
Divide the gallons remaining by the daily avg consumption rate and you have the total days remaining.
If we assume the earlier figure of 500 million gallons for metro Atlanta (as mentioned by rkolter), then we have 321 days left IF we did not have to send more water downstream to the other communities who also need the water.
The Lanier dead pool contains 565 days of raw water for metro Atlanta, if we process and use half of that (ie. the cleanest portion). It means 282 days of dead pool water for metro Atlanta.
CHECK my number and calculations. I am looking to collaborate and test-proof my information and understanding. I welcome corrections.
November 30th, 2007 at 5:28 pm
It’s a little off topic but I couldn’t help but notice the clash between the subject of these posts and the advertisements that the web site generates. For example, linked to the web site today:
>>The gated, lake-club resort of Marina Bay is nestled along a majestic shoreline of secluded coves and panoramic, deep-water vistas on Lake Lanier, a 39,000-acre water amenity with 692 miles of preferred shoreline. Featuring 3.5-miles of waterfront luxury, a 280-slip marina, an award-winning 14,000-square-foot Lake Club, and residences from the $500’s to $3-million-plus, the new-home community of Marina Bay is Lake Lanier Real Estate at its finest! <<
I don’t live in the area and know nothing about Atlanta real estate values but find it hard to believe that there is still a market for $500,000 properties on Lake Lanier. Or are people just ignoring the bad news?
November 30th, 2007 at 11:58 pm
JKM -
I think you are forgetting inflow. The 500 million gallon use is a little more than inflow to Lanier is. Figure maybe 350 million gallons per day inflow - then you should use a burn rate of 150 million gallons / day instead of 500. Just using rough numbers off the top of my head but that would triple your figures and give over three years of water for this area before dead pool. Still not a comfortable figure, but I like three years a lot better than 90 days.
December 1st, 2007 at 3:28 am
richs > if Lanier’s water was just being released for Atlanta, and suburb cities, then it could last for 2 years, but most of the water is being released for power plant needs in Alabama and Florida. That industry controls the water flow from Lanier and the other reservoirs on the Chattahoochee river. So all the reservoirs could be bone dry by end of next summer.
December 1st, 2007 at 9:55 am
richs -
Thanks for the numbers and suggested burn rate. My thoughts are that the water still has to go down stream to other communities. So perhaps we have both a metro “burn rate” and “flow through rate” to other communities.
It’s not been easy identifying and distinguishing all the players and data. The water and its usage have so many interdependencies.
We face “running out of water” every year in the sense that we drain the lake every year. At the lake’s low point, we have a smaller number of days of water remaining.
December 2nd, 2007 at 12:00 am
Jay - I was following JKM’s hypothetical of - IF we did not have to send more water downstream to the other communities who also need the water.
Of course you are right - we are sending water downstream for other uses. Therefore the huge difference in rough numbers - 3 years of water for Atlanta metro or 90 days of water for everybody downstream who wants it also.
December 2nd, 2007 at 12:08 pm
JKM -
I think the easiest way to look at the interests are two groups - the ones who want to conserve more water in Lanier, and those who want to keep the river full. The lanier group is pretty much North Georgia because it is our water supply as well as a recreational spot and economic driver for the area.
The biggest downstream interests are power plants which require huge flow, and wildlife interests which pretty much share the same interest as power plants except where the power plants consume water (instead of returning it to the river). Other downstream interests are farms, municipalities, industrial users, etc which could all live with lower flow rates.
I believe all the other downstream interests would at least grudgingly work on a compromise if we could get past the power plant and fish and wildlife concerns.