AJC starts the countdown, but some rain is coming our way.
The AJC has just put a countdown on their drought page that shows exactly how much time is left for Lake Lanier. As of right now, there are about 90 days and 1 hour left. The problem with this countdown, as with most of them, is that they don’t explain where that number comes from — wasn’t it just “79 days left” about a week ago?
The good news is that some of the rain forecast for our area seems very likely to happen. The specifics from Accuweather:
- Tonight - 0.65 inches
- Thanksgiving - 0.20 inches
- Saturday night - 0.99 inches
- Sunday night - 0.50 inches
- Monday night - 0.36 inches
- Tuesday - 0.25 inches
- Tuesday night - 0.50 inches
Now, we all know how often weather forecasts are wrong, but that is certainly encouraging. That’s nearly 3.5 inches of rain forecast over the next week — far more than the 2.26 inches we’ve seen since October 1st. We’ll be sure to update the official rainfall amounts on our Lanier Rainfall page, as well as show exactly what that rain has done for the lake level.
Given how dry the ground is, even 3.5 inches of rain won’t do much. However, it’s important to realize that rain today might help the lake for a few days down the line, as the Corps can probably reduce the flow because of extra water from the smaller rivers that feed into the Chattahoochee (we explained that a bit in this post).
Even if it doesn’t do much to help, every little bit is good.
November 21st, 2007 at 11:22 pm
Looking at the weather radar tonight showed the current showers breaking into 2 parts. One mass of showers moving across north Georgia and the other across south Georgia. Atlanta has basically received the edge and Stone Mountain where I reside just a few drops so far. Rain pattern over Georgia has become very fickle this past year and study needs to be done of what causes fronts to dry up passing over Atlanta.
November 22nd, 2007 at 12:01 am
After watching the skies in the last few months, your post (Jay Randal) made me think of the excessive jet aircraft con-trail development in the skies over north Atlanta when unstable or “rain prone” fronts come our way. I have noticed very long and “checkerboard” type contrails being laid by high flying jets that appear to be working in tandem. These trails stay for hours and expand into wide and wispy clouds. It’s curious because other jets pass by and their con trails dissipate within 20 seconds, but these others remain for hours and sometime run from horizon to horizon and generally running across the wind flow/pattern from west to east. Anyone have any idea what those might be? I too have wondered why the rains always appear to go north or south of Atlanta.
November 22nd, 2007 at 12:30 am
“very likely to happen” yet the weather service’s precipitation probability is never forecast above 60%. Do you really feel 6 in 10 means “very likely”? I hope you safely get plenty of rain and the drought is over tomorrow. But, be realistic.
Or stay are you are and sit at my poker table.
November 22nd, 2007 at 5:56 am
they are expecting a super strorm for europe in the following days…
November 22nd, 2007 at 6:46 am
You know that when they say a 60% chance of rain, that tends to mean that it will be raining 60% of the time — not that there is a 40% chance of being bone dry.
The lake already got a tiny bit of rain out of it (0.08″ so far), so that means there’s a 100% chance of rain last night.
November 22nd, 2007 at 8:23 am
My observation of forecast is that when they call for 60% for a few days in the following week, it usually means significant rain.
You may see a lot of rain this winter. Then the shortage could linger on into next winter.
I’m also not sure how the experts estimate the lake level. On October 30th the Army Corps of Engineers said there was 280 days.
http://www.wsbtv.com/drought/14456915/detail.html
Maybe thats why they and Georgia didn’t bother to file for an exemption from the ESA? The first letter to the Corps from Georgia was on October 12th.
http://www.wsbtv.com/news/14362968/detail.html
120 days and 90 days seems tossed around a lot too. And I guess there was a lot of rain last night to go from 77 days to 90.
November 22nd, 2007 at 11:28 am
Well the so-called big rain last night gave my area of Stone Mountain, Georgia, less than a tenth of an inch of rain. Lake Lanier area got about one inch perhaps. Storm basically is/was a bust.
November 22nd, 2007 at 11:28 am
A little under .2 inches fell at the north end of the lake. Here’s an online rain gage for that area.
http://www.accessnorthga.com/access/weather/gainesville-ga-weather.php
November 22nd, 2007 at 12:31 pm
I’m seeing a little more than that — about .43 inches.
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ga/nwis/uv?cb_00045=on&format=html&period=3&site_no=02334400
Still not enough to make a bit of difference, though.
November 22nd, 2007 at 8:03 pm
Hi Mickey -
Not sure if you are from this area. Buford is the bottom of the lake - Gainesville is the top of the lake.
If outflow was constant, rainfall at the top of the lake would be more significant - more would actually go into the lake. I don’t know if you can figure that way since rain below the dam should still largely find it’s way into the river which should decrease the need for outflows. Still if I was using one set of numbers I would go with the Gainesville gage.
November 22nd, 2007 at 8:05 pm
“You know that when they say a 60% chance of rain, that tends to mean that it will be raining 60% of the time”
Ouch it burns! Please make the stupid stop. It means that according to the observed conditions and patterns used to make the forecast, that in the past it has rained 60% of the time when those conditions and patterns were present. In other words, there is a 60% probability of rain.
If the situation wasn’t so serious it would be funny. Some of you people make Grampa Simpson seem wise. Do any of you still wear onions on your belt? Which was the style at the time…
Ha ha
November 23rd, 2007 at 7:39 am
Hurricane season is over. The chances are slim to none we will get enough rainfall over the next few months to recharge the reservoirs before next summer. If you think being asked to take “shorter showers” is funny, wait until next spring when Sonny TELLS you that you’ll only be taking showers, washing laundry or flushing commodes between 7pm-11pm.
Water management should have been on Sonny’s “do-list”, but don’t blame him. The citizens (myself included, though I didn’t vote for Sonny) of Georgia are to blame for electing leaders afraid to tackle the real issues.
Suddenly the confederate flag doesn’t seem so important anymore………
“Don’t Tread (Water) On Me”
November 23rd, 2007 at 10:29 am
“Water management should have been on Sonny’s “do-list”, but don’t blame him. ”
In fact water management was on Sonny’s list. And he got it done. Georgia changed it’s laws to allow businesses unconstrained water usage. So why does he not share the blame? And one of his most recent plans … having grammar school kids make posters. Perhaps it would be more effective if he has the Chamber of Commerce decision makers and leadership make water conservation posters?
The idea that resources are infinite is one I don’t understand. It must be some confederate “wisdom” that only you crackers have. Yeah … lets change the law and the invisible guy in the sky will act appropriately because we have a lot of churches and pray real loud. That’s the plan! Yeah!
What seems truly bizarre is that Atlanta still has not put in place any absolute limits on usage. Limits that if exceeded will get your tap shut. No matter if who you are … you, me, Chris Carlos or Coca Cola. Atlanta is becoming a national spectacle of denial and dysfunction.
By the way … If the drought does not break before Spring, forget 7pm-11pm showers … you will showering out of National Guard trucks … oh wait … those trucks are in Iraq.
November 23rd, 2007 at 12:09 pm
Nice Notanumber - moving from partisan hate all the way to racism. You’re quite an asset to this forum.
November 23rd, 2007 at 2:25 pm
It seems there has been quite the rain in northern GA in the last couple of days. The article was posted two days ago and gives the time left as 90+ days according to the AJC. Looking at it now (23 Nov 2:20PM) it is showing 98+ days. From other comments there doesn’t seem to be any defined method to figure out when dead pool will come. Also appears the water level is falling. Does anyone know how the AJC has arrived at the date? Does it have to do with reduced outflow?
November 23rd, 2007 at 3:59 pm
richs - Why are people in Georgia so obsessed with race and sexuality? Rather than reality and problem solving?
November 23rd, 2007 at 4:07 pm
Hey if it wasn’t for me you
primitivesnoble confederates would still be thinking that when the day’s weather forecast offer a 60% probability of rain it menat that it would be raining 60% of the day.Glad I could help you all understand “probability” and I appreciated the laugh.
November 23rd, 2007 at 5:58 pm
for areas not near bodies of natural fresh water (note: Lanier is a man made, river driven lake), the only hope for water in the future is 1) conservation and limits on growth and development and 2) desalination. Much as there is a push for alternative fuels for autos, we need an equally focused drive to find new sources of water. The ocean is the obvious source. The technology to desalinate cleanly without environmental harm should be a main focus of the US Government. The department of energy, if its worth having as a cabinet level position, should have 2 goals. Rid or minimize our dependence on foreign oil and develop stable water sources for every part of this country.
November 23rd, 2007 at 8:14 pm
kc I agree that desalinization is one of two possible solutions. The problem is that Atlanta sits on high ground. For instance - full pool of Lanier is 1071 ft above sea level. So to pump water into Lanier from the ocean would mean it would have to be pumped not only many miles, but also 1071 feet directly up. It would cost Billions of dollars - possibly thousands of dollars per Atlanta Metro resident.
Maybe it would be less costly to pump desalinated water to the north end of Florida so they will let us keep some of our water up north. Of course that would never happen. Nobody will spend that kind of money to keep some oysters and mussels wet. They will however take away needed drinking water from Atlanta. No sweat off their nose if a few Georgians die huh???
November 23rd, 2007 at 8:15 pm
notanumber -who is obsessed? You are the one using racial slurs on a water forum.
November 24th, 2007 at 1:16 am
What “racial slur”? It was the lack of intellect and effective problem solving as presented in these threads that I was denigrating. I have no idea of your or any others’ “race” from this blog. It is one of the better aspects of the internet that discussion can be “colorless” and exist on its own presentation of ideas.
That said, unfortunately it is not surprising that some southern US residents may try to interpret any criticisms in terms of imagined perception of racial traits. Almost a half century after our civil rights reform, viewing situations through a zenophobic tinted lens of cultural differences and race seems to still be an undesirable left-over of our country’s difficult history. But, as Ron White has observed … you can’t fix stupid.
November 24th, 2007 at 9:30 am
Has anyone looked up in the skies this morning??? There are huge, white con-trails in the sky - horizon to horizon this morning. I think they are Chemical Trails and that the sky is being sprayed systematically by these jets to RETARD rain cloud formation…Don’t believe me, JUST LOOK UP TODAY - What are they doing???
November 24th, 2007 at 1:09 pm
notanumber Says:
November 24th, 2007 at 1:16 am
What “racial slur”?
From Wikipedia -
“Cracker”, sometimes “white cracker”, is a usually pejorative term for a white person, mainly used in the Southern United States, but in recent decades it has entered common usage throughout North America.
“Cracker” has also been used as a proud or jocular self-description. With the huge influx of new residents from the North, “cracker” is now used informally by some white residents of Florida and Georgia (”Florida cracker” or “Georgia cracker”) to indicate that their family has lived there for many generations. However, the term “white cracker” is not always used self-referentially and remains a racist term to many in the region.
But of course you knew the meaning of cracker when you used it. Because you are the smartest person on this blog right?????
November 24th, 2007 at 2:46 pm
richs - “Because you are the smartest person on this blog right?????”
I truly have no idea. But, if you say so…