How much water is really left in Lanier?
The question of “how many days worth of water do we have left?” never seems to have the same answer twice.
The Corps of Engineers say we have 279 days left. The state says we have about 111 days left. CNN says we have 67 days left (81 days left as of 14 days ago). Alabama Gov. Bob Riley thinks we have about 243 days left (250 days left as of a week ago). So what on earth is the right answer?
There are really two parts to this question. First, how long until we hit the 1035 foot mark in Lake Lanier? When that happens, water will no longer flow over Buford Dam. From there, we’ll need to use barges and pumps to get the water from that level, also known as the “dead pool”. Not only will the water be more difficult to get out, but it will be dirtier and require additional treatment. That leads to the second question — how long will the dead pool water last?
The dead pool estimates are few and far between. The Corps says that there are 169 days worth of water in the dead pool and I’ve not found anything to contradict that. The question is whether or not they can pump it out quickly enough to keep things rolling.
The tougher question is knowing how much longer until we get to the dead pool stage. Break out your calculators. 
The last four weeks has seen a total drop in Lake Lanier of 3.22 feet. That works out to an average of about 0.8 feet per week (around 9-1/2 inches). Right now Lanier is at 1055.6 feet and the dead pool begins at 1035 feet — a difference of 20.5 feet. 20.5 feet, losing 0.8 feet per week, will last about 25.5 weeks, or 179 days.
However, this doesn’t take into account the fact that the drop in lake level will likely accelerate a little bit as it goes lower. Also, the last four weeks included 1.14 inches of rain, so if the next few weeks are dry (as predicted), the lake will also drop more quickly than it has for the past month.
So what’s the answer? It’s obviously very hard to say. My wild guess would be about 20 weeks (140 days), assuming a little bit of rain and no change in the Corps release levels. That puts us in mid-March. At that point, they could start using the dead pool and we’d see how things go from there.
November 1st, 2007 at 12:29 am
From Gristmill:
November 1st, 2007 at 12:59 am
Well I never thought it would be this soon that the “senerio builders” would get the opening shot at the BIG Question.
“How do we make sure rich people are not hurt here?” will be the concealed secret talking point and it will repeat until we revolt as water becomnes no longer free, not really free but effortless type free, then all the agri-business water gets stolen, then the recreation sites go away and then oil hits $100.00 + a barrel. The industrial media will have a new crisis to conceal each robbery, you watch.
What a sad movie we ended up in and it does seem a good argument that the hippies were right in ‘65 about less is more, more is gone now, less is just not as nice when it is forced on you and not selected with care.
So let it begin right here, what happens to the CO2 that is surplus and not buffered back to the air as breathable gas over time if the entire % of the air that is O2 is 9% now?
Won’t we have less to breathe and how do we know the tipping point on that?
More billions are being born so long will we have to wait until we see deaths go up? And how long will those deaths be a “myth” like your drought was called 25 years ago when thinking folks cautioned against urban growth and predicted this exact limited water.
November 1st, 2007 at 1:08 am
Gristmill, There is a lot of money to be made by a small number of people with the development of nuclear power plants. This of course is the first commandment of the capitalist face of the republican party. Then there is the possibility of accidents or “other uses” of nuclear technology which resonate with the religious nut face of the pelican party as they portend the end of times. There is the freedom fat middle aged guys experience ( I am one ) disregarding all issues of waste disposal and any sense of responsibility to future generations which is the ayn rand face.
As for the water situation in Atlanta all I can say is holy cow! But then no one would have ever been able to predict the water needs of the city and it’s burbs as it grew and thereby either built needed infrastructure ( desalinization plants?? ) or ( and yes I am a DFH ) LIMITING GROWTH would they? Plus planning is communism.
November 1st, 2007 at 1:25 am
Water is sooooo overrated. I bathe and wash my dishes in Coca-Cola and have never been happier.
November 1st, 2007 at 1:26 am
You should have a graphical “water meter” on the front page.
November 1st, 2007 at 1:27 am
Good idea on the water meter. I’ve thought about that. I’ll see what I can do.
November 1st, 2007 at 12:40 pm
The government is so short sighted. Not only do they have no plans if we run out of water, they also have no plans in case we actually get some decent rain. They should be out in Lanier right now digging out as much dirt as possible so that the lake can hold more water in the future. Do it now while the dirt is exposed instead of dredging later on.
November 1st, 2007 at 12:43 pm
Mike, that’s a very good point. I know Cobb is about to start work on a new reservoir (I’ll post about it pretty soon), but that’s a very good point about Lanier. I wonder why they’re not?
November 1st, 2007 at 4:05 pm
[...] Atlanta has about 100 days of water left in its main reservoir. [...]
November 2nd, 2007 at 3:04 am
[...] I think this is a bit premature, but it’s good to be thinking about. We likely have at least 20 weeks worth of water left, and that amount should go up higher if the Corps reduce the flow from Lanier — which appears [...]
November 2nd, 2007 at 3:29 am
[...] 800 million gallons (stats). These seem to be fairly typical figures. The lake dropped an average of 0.12 feet each day for the past four weeks. Based on that, we can say that an 800 million gallon loss results in a drop of about 0.12 [...]
November 2nd, 2007 at 9:28 pm
[...] This guy is running a blog on the Atlanta water shortage, which is getting scary as the level of Lake Lanier continues to fall: [...]
November 3rd, 2007 at 12:40 am
Doctor Biobrain Says:
November 1st, 2007 at 1:25 am
Water is sooooo overrated. I bathe and wash my dishes in Coca-Cola and have never been happier.
LOL Dr. Bio. Overrated indeed. Lazy people, looking for handouts from Yahweh. Why, when I was a boy, we had to make our own water by rubbing two rocks together.
Don’t forget, that the Govs of Ga., Fl. & Al. ,have only had 17 years to work this out, so we need to cut them some slack.
Shit fire, don’t these whinny people know Sonny’s got bigger things on his plate? What’s water compared to a vote on the flag, for example?
It appears that great progress is being made in the last few weeks, however. The Govs put their heads together and in a blinding flash of deduction, found that it is easier to point fingers, when they take them out of their noses and or don’t have their thumbs up their butts.
For all those posting here ,that are crunching numbers on the days of water remaining in Lanier, bonus points, calculate the combined IQ in the room where the Govs. met.
November 5th, 2007 at 3:13 pm
[...] one is really sure how much water we have left, but all of them have it measured in a matter of months. With a dry winter coming, we are [...]
November 9th, 2007 at 2:52 pm
[...] The problem is that no one has any idea where the number has come from. We’ve heard a wide variety of guesses before, but the increased release rate should mean we have less time than those guesses — not [...]
November 10th, 2007 at 9:58 am
china has some chemicals that make rainclouds, we should get some!
I also think enviromentalists should stop being so for the musscles! We get water and musscles die, or we save them and have water problems!!!!!!
November 11th, 2007 at 11:38 pm
In response to Mike & Mikey’s posts. If they dig into the lake now, it will lower the current water level and make you touch into the dead pool sooner. They will need to wait until the lake is not on a steady decline, before they work on increasing it’s capacity.
November 13th, 2007 at 11:34 am
Manipulating the weather is an option, but it’s certainly not anything new. We tested this capability as far back as the 50s, and it was used as recently as the 2006 G6 conference in Russia to keep the skies clear while foreign leaders were in the country…
It can be done, but it’s expensive and the results are unpredictable.
November 24th, 2007 at 10:55 am
My grandparents live there and i dont want them to die!!
November 24th, 2007 at 10:57 am
does any one know how many more days of water they have left??
November 24,2007
November 24th, 2007 at 11:07 am
Kiera — It’s hard to say, since different people give vastly difference estimates.
Most guess say about three months until things get bad, and about six months before the lake goes dry.
Of course, that depends on rainfall and legislation and a variety of things.
November 26th, 2007 at 10:12 pm
Couple of thoughts I never see addressed, and a subpoint… as the lake drops the water volume per foot of elevation is significantly smaller (think of a martini glass). So it’s getting tougher each week.
First point- I understand the need of those downstream BUT - why does the Corps need to discharge on days when it rained across teh region and the tributaries downstream of the dam can make up the difference? They could use the West Point inflow as a gauge.
Second point- $500 fines for third time offenders? (Article on Dekalb County) $500!?!? Try $500 for a second offense and $5000 for a third. Hell, charge high usage enough that it will pay for the extra measures, including a long term solution of running a pipe from the Tennessee River. Came from there originally, they would never miss it and would love to sell it and we could run a pipe line ala Colorado right down the side of I-75. Or up the Hiwassii and over Unicoi Gap.
December 2nd, 2007 at 3:49 pm
ok it is sunday december 02 I wana know how many days of water is left starting today please tell u can tell me in my blog
December 2nd, 2007 at 4:09 pm
Alaya — There are a lot of opinions about that. This page summarizes them and updates most every day:
http://atlantawatershortage.com/wiki/index.php/Deadpool_predictor
The short answer — we’ll probably hit deadpool in April or May of next year.
December 6th, 2007 at 11:32 pm
I am from Ohio so I don’t really know about winters in Georgia, bit I have a question…Does the lake freeze in the winter down there? If so, then won’t that complicate things a bit as the ice get’s thicker and there is less water?
December 23rd, 2007 at 5:49 pm
As of today, according to COE statistics which I acquired from discussions with their water management section, the lake contains 65.4% of its full volume. How many days left depends on so many variables it would be difficult fo calculate, Water flowing into the lake, how much counties pump out, how much released daily at Buford Dam, evaporation, etc. However, I walked along the lake’s shoreline today and its still seems like a lot of water left in the lake.
February 1st, 2008 at 2:39 pm
[...] I wonder how accurate the number is. As we’ve seen before, those kinds of estimates can vary wildly from source to source. If nothing else, it appears they have about 87 days worth of water left after the [...]